计划管理下烟农增加土地规模内在驱动力研究  

Study on driving forces for tobacco farmers to increase land transfer scale under plannedmanagement

作　　者：李想 刘艳霞 孙光军[1] 李光雷 王骏飞 穆东升 姜超英 金祥[1] 焦剑[1] 夏志林 郭亮[1] 陈风雷[1] 沈宏 LI Xiang;LIU Yanxia;SUN Guangjun;LI Guanglei;WANG Junfei;MU Dongsheng;JIANG Chaoying;JIN Xiang;JIAO Jian;XIA Zhilin;GUO Liang;CHEN Fenglei;SHEN Hong(Guizhou Tobacco Company,China National Tobacco Corporation,Guiyang 550000,China;Guizhou Academy of Tobacco Science,Guiyang 550000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国烟草总公司贵州省公司,贵阳550000 [2]贵州省烟草科学研究院,贵阳550000

出　　处：《中国烟草学报》2020年第6期97-104,共8页Acta Tabacaria Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(31860597);黔科合支撑[2018]2345;黔烟科(201808、201905)。

摘　　要：【背景和目的】随着规模化种植水平的不断提高和现代烟草农业的深入推进,探究计划生产条件下贵州省烟农土地流转意愿及影响因素迫在眉睫。【方法】基于不同香型烟区烟农自身条件、烟田自然禀赋、当前土地流转市场现状、烟农保障体系四个方面入手,运用Logistic多元线性回归分析,构建影响烟农增加土地规模意愿的离散变量模型。【结果】贵州省两个香型烟区的土地流转情况显著不同,土地年租金、年龄、教育程度分别为蜜甜香型烟区极显著负向影响因素,家庭劳动力和种烟收入为清甜香型烟区极显著正向影响因素,种烟收入为两香型烟区共性正向影响因素,但其影响程度存在差异。在蜜甜香型烟区每亩烟地年租金每增加10元,烟农增加土地规模的意愿就减少6.65%,在清甜香型烟区专业化服务水平每提高1%,烟农转入烟地可能性将提高0.39%。【结论】建议出台土地流转政策,确保土地流转规范,土地租金较长时间保持相对稳定,提高职业烟农培育力度以及专业化服务水平,构建高标准基本烟田。[Background]With the continuous improvement of large-scale tobacco planting and the further advancement of modern tobacco agriculture,it is important to explore the willingness of tobacco farmers in land transfer and relevant influence factors in Guizhou Province under planned production conditions.[Methods]Based on four aspects of tobacco farmers'own conditions,natural endowment of tobacco fields,current status of land transfer market,and tobacco farmers'security system,logistic multiple linear regression analysis was used to construct a discrete variable model affecting tobacco farmers'willingness to increase land scale.[Results]The study found that the land transfer situations of the two aroma-type tobacco areas are significantly different.The annual land rent,age,and education level of tobacco farmers were extremely significant negative influencing factors for the honey-sweet-type tobacco area,whereas household labor and tobacco income are extremely significant positive influencing factors for the sweet-fragrance tobacco area.The income from tobacco cultivation is a common positive influence factor for the two flavor type tobacco areas,but varies in the degree of influence.In the honeysweet tobacco area,the increase in annual rent of 10 yuan per mu of tobacco land will reduce the farmers'willingness of increasing planting land scale by 6.65%.In the sweet-fragrance tobacco area,every 1%increase in professional service level will increase the probability of land transfer by 0.39%.[Conclusion]In summary,it is recommended to ensure land transfer norms,maintain relatively stable land rents for a longer period of time,strengthen the training for professional tobacco farmers and improve service levels,build high-standard basic tobacco fields for increasing tobacco farmers'income.

关 键 词：土地流转 烟农意愿 LOGISTIC回归模型 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济] F326.12