基于MaxEnt模型的长足大竹象在中国潜在分布区及其对气候变化的响应  

Predicting the Future Cultivation Regions of Cyrtotrachelus Buqueti Using MaxEnt Model under Climate Change in China

作　　者：杨春平[1] 赵霞 王嘉雯 杨桦[1] 杨伟[1] 吴南 YANG Chunping;ZHAO Xia;WANG Jiawen;YANG Hua;YANG Wei;WU Nan(National Forestry and Grassland Administration Key Laboratory of Forest Resources Conservation and Ecological Safety on the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China;Sichuan Association for Forest Integrated Pest Management,Chengdu 610081,China)

机构地区：[1]四川农业大学林学院,成都611130 [2]四川省林业有害生物防治协会,成都610081

出　　处：《四川农业大学学报》2020年第6期755-763,共9页Journal of Sichuan Agricultural University

基　　金：四川省重点实验室开放课题(17ZZ017);四川省教育厅项目(17ZB0344)。

摘　　要：【目的】探究长足大竹象(Cyrtotrachelus buqueti)与环境因子之间的关系,为实现长足大竹象种群持续控制奠定基础。【方法】基于MaxEnt模型结合GIS技术模拟未来2050s和2080s两个时段,3种不同气候情景(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)下长足大竹象的潜在分布区。【结果】在当前气候情景下,长足大竹象在中国的适生区范围为22°~33°N,104°~122°E,位于我国亚热带地区,总适生面积达87983 km2,其中高适生区主要位于四川、贵州、重庆。未来气候由于CO2浓度的增加,中、高适生区向广西一带扩散,高适生区面积增加。在RCP2.6下,高适生区面积变化最大,由当前8607 km2增加到15430 km2(2050s)。相同气候情景下,随时间推移,长足大竹象适生区呈先增加后减少的趋势。2月最低温(tmin2)、最暖季降雨(bio18)和7月降雨量(perc7)对长足大竹象适生区分布影响较大。【结论】气候是决定长足大竹象分布的最主要因素。【Objective】This study was aimed to explore the relationship between Cyrtotrachelus buqueti and environmental factors,an d lays the foundation for the sustainable control of the population of C.buqueti.【Method】Based on the MaxEnt model and GIS technology,this study simulated the potential distribution area of C.buqueti in the 2050s and 2080s under three different climatic scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).【Result】The results showed that in the current climate condition,the suitable distribution area of C.buqueti in China is 22°-33°N,104°-122°E,and it is located in the subtropical region of China,with a total suitable distribution area of 87983 km2.And the highly suited area are mainly in Sichuan,Guizhou and Chongqing.In the future,due to the increase of CO2 concentration,the medium and high suitable distribution area will spread to Guangxi,and the high suitable distribution area will increase.Under RCP2.6,the high suitable distribution area will have the largest change,increasing from 8607 km2 to 15430 km2(2050s).As time goes by,the suitable distribution area of C.buqueti will increase first and then decrease.The lowest temperature in February(tmin2),rainfall in the warmest season(bio18)and rainfall in July(perc7)will have a significant effect on the suitable distribution area of C.buqueti.【Conclusion】The climate is main factor that determines the of population growth of C.buqueti.

关 键 词：长足大竹象 MAXENT 气候变化 适生区 中心位点 

分 类 号：Q968.1[生物学—昆虫学]