基于人工社会的疫情传播风险预测和防控措施评估  

Prediction of Epidemic Transmission and Evaluation of Prevention and Control Measures Based on Artificial Society

作　　者：陈彬[1] 杨妹 艾川 马亮 朱正秋 陈海亮 朱蒙娜 许伟[2] Chen Bin;Yang Mei;Ai Chuan;Ma Liang;Zhu Zhengqiu;Chen Hailiang;Zhu Mengna;Xu Wei(College of Systems Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China;School of Information,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学系统工程学院,湖南长沙410073 [2]中国人民大学信息学院,北京100872

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2020年第12期2507-2514,共8页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71673292,71673294);国家社会科学基金(17CGL047)。

摘　　要：新型冠状病毒疫情在全国一盘棋的严格防控措施下已经得到了控制,但是如何对其进行常态化的治理值得深入研究。分别基于SEIR模型和人工社会情景建立了新型冠状病毒疫情传播模型和人员接触网络模型;在天河超级计算机上运用多Agent计算实验方法进行大样本计算实验,模拟人工城市中社区、学校和工作场所等典型区域疫情传播,预测和评估复工复学后疫情传播风险。实验结果表明疫情防控要做好打持久战的准备,将应急措施作用到疫情发生相变之前。The COVID-19 has been controlled under the strict measures,but how to normalize it deserves in-depth study.The COVID-19 transmission model and the human contact network are established separately based on SEIR model and the artificial social scenario.With the support of the multi-agent computational experiment method,a large sample calculation experiment was performed on the Tianhe supercomputer to simulate the epidemic transmission in typical areas such as communities,schools,and workplaces in artificial cities,and to predict and evaluate the risk of epidemic spread after resumption of work and school.The results show that epidemic prevention and control must be prepared for a protracted battle,the emergency measures should be activated before the outbreak.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 传播预测 防控措施评估 人工社会 计算实验 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]