含分布式电源配电网运行风险的影响因素溯源  

Influence factor tracing of operation risk for distribution network with distributed generations

作　　者：郝丽丽 王辉 王国栋 黄梅[3] 徐晓轶 刘海涛[4] HAO Lili;WANG Hui;WANG Guodong;HUANG Mei;XU Xiaoyi;LIU Haitao(College of Electrical Engineering and Control Science,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing 211816,China;NARI Group Corporation(State Grid Electric Power Research Institute),Nanjing 211106,China;State Grid Nantong Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Nantong 226006,China;School of Electric Power Engineering,Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 211167,China)

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学电气工程与控制科学学院,江苏南京211816 [2]南瑞集团(国网电力科学研究院)有限公司,江苏南京211106 [3]国网南通供电公司,江苏南通226006 [4]南京工程学院电力工程学院,江苏南京211167

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2021年第1期27-33,共7页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国网江苏省电力有限公司科技项目(J2018110);江苏省配电网智能技术与装备协同创新中心开放基金资助项目(XTCX202001)。

摘　　要：分布式电源的大量接入改变了传统配电网的供电结构和运行方式,对含分布式电源配电网运行风险的影响因素进行研究,有助于提高电网安全可靠性。建立了间歇性分布式电源出力和负荷需求的概率模型,通过蒙特卡洛方法模拟随机运行场景,利用Cholesky分解排序使风速、光照强度及负荷等随机变量间满足时空相关性,通过场景聚类确定代表场景及其出现概率,进而计算配电网的运行风险。此外,从分布式电源和重要负荷的配置、联络线接入位置、自动控制开关比例等方面对影响配电网运行风险的因素进行溯源分析。With a large number of distributed generations integrated,the power supply structure and operating mode of traditional distribution network have changed.Researching the influence factors of operation risk for distribution network with distributed generations is helpful to improve the safety and reliability of power grid.The probabilistic models of distributed generation intermittent output and load demand are established.Monte Carlo method is used to simulate random operation scenarios,Cholesky decomposition ordering is used to make wind speed,light intensity,load and other random variables meet the spatio-temporal correlation,represent scenarios and their probability are determined by scenario clustering,and the operation risk of distribution network is calculated.In addition,the influence factor tracing of distribution network operation risk is carried out in terms of the configuration of distributed generations and important loads,the connection position of tie lines,and the proportion of automatic control switches.

关 键 词：分布式电源 配电网 随机性 运行风险 拓扑结构 影响因素 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]