基于潮流转移和追踪的含风电电力系统运行风险评估  

Assessment of operation risk for power system containing wind power based on power flow transferring and tracing

作　　者：马燕峰[1] 杨小款 赵书强[1] 傅钰 王子建[1] 董凌 MA Yanfeng;YANG Xiaokuan;ZHAO Shuqiang;FU Yu;WANG Zijian;DONG Ling(Key Laboratory of Distributed Energy Storage and Microgrid of Hebei Province,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China;State Grid Qinghai Electric Power Company,Xining 810000,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学河北省分布式储能与微网重点实验室,河北保定071003 [2]国网青海省电力公司,青海西宁810000

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2021年第1期77-83,共7页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0902200);国家电网公司科技项目(5228001700CW)。

摘　　要：为实现含风电电力系统运行风险快速评估,提出了一种基于潮流转移和追踪的风险快速评估方法。首先,考虑风电出力波动与时间和风速的相关性,基于Markov理论建立了风速相依的风电出力波动模型;其次,为提高系统状态分析效率,通过推导节点转移分布因子和适用于多支路开断的支路开断分布因子来实现快速潮流计算,避免了潮流迭代计算;然后,建立了基于潮流追踪的负荷削减模型,采用潮流追踪理论筛选出最有效的控制节点集合,将全系统范围内寻优转化为局部范围内寻优,在改进潮流计算算法和负荷削减模型2个方面实现了运行风险快速评估;最后,通过IEEE-RTS79系统的仿真分析,验证了所提模型的准确性和有效性,进一步计算切负荷风险指标和线路越限风险指标以分析不同风速条件对系统运行风险评估的影响,为含风电电力系统运行风险评估提供参考。To address the rapid operation risk assessment of power system containing wind power,a risk assessment approach based on power flow transferring and tracing is proposed.Firstly,based on Markov theory,a wind power fluctuation model that is correlative with wind speed is established,in which the correlation between wind power fluctuation and time and wind speed is considered.Secondly,a rapid power flow calculation approach is developed by deriving the nodal transfer distribution factor and branch outage distribution factor suitable for multi-branch outage,which avoids iterative calculation of power flows,so that improving the computational efficiency.Thirdly,a load-shedding model based on power flow tracing theory is established to screen out the most effective set of control nodes.In this way,the system-wide global search can be transferred into local search.Hence,the rapid risk assessment can be achieved in two aspects of improved power flow calculation algorithm and load-shedding model.Finally,the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed model are verified by simulation analysis of IEEE-RTS79 system.Furthermore,the loadshedding risk and the line over-limit risk indices are calculated to analyze the impact of different wind speeds on the system operation risk.This can provide reference for the operation risk assessment of power system containing wind power.

关 键 词：电力系统 运行风险评估 风电出力波动 节点转移分布因子 支路开断分布因子 潮流 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]