中美俄关系与“战略三角”  

China-Russia-US Relations and Strategic Triangles

作　　者：托马斯·格雷厄姆 胡冰(译)[2] Thomas Graham

机构地区：[1]美国基辛格事务所 [2]中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2020年第6期17-26,155,156,共12页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

摘　　要：中国、俄罗斯与美国是当今世界上三个最活跃的地缘政治角色。目前专家研究关注三国互动的核心问题是当代中美俄关系是否相当于20世纪70年代的中美苏大三角关系,它们今天的关系是否像四五十年前那样形成一个“战略三角”?本文首先界定了“战略三角”形成的主客观条件,继而通过回顾20世纪70年代尼克松和基辛格对推动“战略三角”形成所作的判断与努力,进一步分析中美苏战略三角关系形成与衰退的历史过程;2008年全球金融危机之后,大国竞争再次加剧,有关中美俄三角关系的讨论再度升温,但中美俄“战略三角”并没有复苏,原因一方面在于“战略三角”目前并不是美国政府政策关注重点,在遏制中国问题上,俄罗斯排在美国长期合作伙伴东亚和欧洲之后;另一方面,即使在新冠疫情暴发后中美竞争越发激烈,也没有证据表明中国试图打“俄罗斯牌”对付美国。未来推动“战略三角”形成的主要力量在俄罗斯,或许只有俄罗斯真心希望利用与中国的新关系,改变与美国的平衡,使整体形势对自己有利,但迄今收效甚微,关键因素取决于俄罗斯自身能否在国际事务中继续维持顶级地缘政治角色。China,Russia,and the United States are the three most active geopolitical actors on the global stage today.The expert communities are engaged in intense investigation of triangular relations among them.One central question is whether this relationship is the contemporary equivalent of the big American-Chinese-Soviet triangle of the 1970s that refashioned global geopolitics in the 1970s.Do their relations today form a strategic triangle,as they once did 40-50 years ago?For strategy triangle to emerge,certain objective and subjective conditions have to obtain.This is what happened in the 1970s due in large part to the strategic vision of two American statesmen.By reviewing the judgment and efforts made by Nixon and Kissinger to promote the formation of the“strategic triangle”in the 1970s,this paper further analyzes the historical process of the formation and decline of the strategic triangle relationship between China,America and The Soviet Union.The reemergence of great-power competition after the global financial crisis of 2008,has revived talk of a China-Russia-US strategic,or“big”triangle in world affairs.Nevertheless,we have not yet witnessed the resurrection of the China-Russia-US strategic triangle,largely because Washington has refused to acknowledge its existence as a matter of policy concern.Secondly,there is no evidence of China’s seeking to play a“Russia card”against Washington.The above analysis suggests that the future formation of a strategic triangle depends primarily on Russia,Only Moscow might seriously hope to exploit its budding relationship with China to alter the balance with the United States in its favor,but so far to little effect.The most importance factor is whether Russia will show its continuing worth as a top-tier geopolitical actor.

关 键 词：中俄美关系 战略三角 世界秩序 权力平衡 

分 类 号：D822.3[政治法律—政治学] D871.2[政治法律—外交学] D851.2