中岳嵩山高山站平均气温资料插补及其变化趋势分析  

Interpolation and variation trend analysis of air temperature data at Songshan mountain station in He′nan province

作　　者：姬兴杰[1] 左璇[1] 徐文慧[2] JI Xing-jie;ZUO Xuan;XU Wen-hui(He′nan Provincial Climate Center,Zhengzhou 450003,China;National Meteorological Information Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省气候中心,河南郑州450003 [2]国家气象信息中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2020年第6期58-67,共10页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局河南省农气象保障与应用技术重点实验室应用技术研究基金项目(KZ202005);河南省气象局“气候与气候变化创新团队”项目共同资助。

摘　　要：为明确近60 a来在近对流层自由大气底部这一特定高度上河南省中岳嵩山气温变化特征,在对河南省登封气象站月平均气温数据均一化的基础上,采用该站均一化数据构建嵩山站月平均气温模拟模型,对1990—2002年缺测数据插补,建立中岳嵩山高山国家基准气候站1956—2017年时间序列连续的月平均气温资料,采用线性回归对其进行气温变化趋势分析。结果表明:均一化处理对登封站月平均气温因台站迁移的非自然因素引起的非均一性取得了明显的校正效果。均一化后,1969—2017年登封站年平均气温由显著上升速率0.218℃/10 a增至0.310℃/10 a。利用独立数据对模型进行验证表明,总体上,嵩山站各月平均气温推算模型模拟值与实测值的线性相关系数和斜率分别为0.999和0.989(n=204,P<0.01);1—12月各月模型验证检验参数的平均值相关系数为0.958、均方根误差为11.7%、平均绝对偏差为0.3℃、平均偏差为0.1℃、拟合指数为0.973、模拟效率为0.900,模型具有较好的模拟效果。1956—2017年嵩山站年平均气温增温显著,其速率为0.223℃/10 a。四季之间,以春季增温速率最大,为0.350℃/10 a;冬季和秋季次之;夏季增温不显著。各月之间,以2月增温速率最大,达0.445℃/10 a。To reveal the variation characteristics in temperature over the Zhongyue mountain region in the troposphere near the bottom of the free atmosphere in recent 60 years,based on homogenizing the monthly mean air temperature data at Dengfeng meteorological station,the simulated models of the monthly mean air temperature at Songshan meteorological station were constructed using the monthly mean air temperature homogeneous data of Dengfeng meteorological station.The missing data from 1990 to 2002 at Songshan meteorological station were interpolated using the monthly models to get the monthly mean air temperature data from 1956 to 2017.The trend of temperature change was analyzed using a linear regression method.The results show that an obvious correction effect is obtained using the homogeneous treatment to deal with the inhomogeneous effect of the monthly mean air temperature caused by the unnatural factors of station migration.After homogenization,the significant rising rate of the annual average air temperature at Dengfeng station from 1969 to 2017 increases from 0.218℃per decade to 0.310℃per decade.The increasing rate is 42%.The verification of the model with independent data shows that,on the whole,the linear correlation coefficient and slope between calculated model values and measured values are 0.999 and 0.989,respectively(n=204,p<0.01).From January to December,the mean correlation coefficient of model verification and test parameters is 0.958,root mean square error is 11.7%,the average absolute deviation is 0.3℃,the average deviation is 0.1℃,the fitting index is 0.973,and simulation efficiency is 0.900.The model has a good simulation effect.From 1956 to 2017,the annual mean air temperature of Songshan station increases significantly,with a rate of 0.223℃per decade.Among the four seasons,the temperature increasing rate in spring is the highest,with 0.350℃per decade,followed by winter and autumn.The mean air temperature in summer does not increase obviously.The warming rate in February is the highest

关 键 词：高山站 均一化 插补 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]