城市适应气候变化能力评价—以朝阳市为例  

Assessment of urban comprehensive adaptability to climatechange:a case study of Chaoyang

作　　者：崔妍[1] 敖雪[1] 周晓宇[1] 王涛[1] 林蓉[1] 赵春雨[1] 刘鸣彦[1] 易雪[1] CUI Yan;AO Xue;ZHOU Xiao-yu;WANG Tao;LIN Rong;ZHAO Chun-yu;LIU Ming-yan;YI Xue(Shenyang Regional Climate Center,Shenyang 110166,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2020年第6期122-129,共8页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：辽宁省自然科学基金指导计划(2019-ZD-0859);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201910);辽宁省气象局科研课题(201810、BA201803);辽宁省博士科研启动基金计划项目(2020-BS-276)共同资助。

摘　　要：利用朝阳市1961—2016年气温、降水资料和2007—2016年社会经济资料,采用层次分析法(AHP)构建了基于气候系统和城市系统的城市适应气候变化能力评价指标体系,根据综合指数评价结果将适应能力分为五个等级,定量评估了2007—2016年朝阳市气候系统危险度、城市系统适应度以及城市适应气候变化能力动态变化。结果表明:2007—2016年朝阳市气候系统危险度显著增加,危险度由“较低”水平至“一般”水平,气候系统危险度的增加主要是由气象灾害和极端气候危险度增加造成的;随着经济发展和城市公共服务不断完善,朝阳市城市系统适应度稳步提升,由“低”水平提高至“高”水平;在气候系统和城市系统共同作用下,朝阳市城市适应气候变化能力显著提高,年增加率为0.029,综合能力由“较低”水平提升至“较高”水平。Based on daily air temperature,precipitation data in Chaoyang city during 1961-2016,and socioeconomic statistics data from 2007 to 2016,the evaluation system of urban adaptability to climate change including climate and urban subsystem was constructed with the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method.The adaptive ability is divided into five levels according to the comprehensive index,and the membership degree of climate risk,city adaptation,comprehensive adaptability were dynamically assessed during 2007-2016.The result shows that the risk of climate subsystem increases significantly from a“little low”to a“general”level,which is attributed to the increases in disasters and extreme climate risks.With the development of the urban economy and the improvement of public services,the adaptation of the city subsystem is constantly improved from a“low”level to a“high”level.Under the combined effect of climate and city,the comprehensive adaptability of Chaoyang increases obviously from a“little low”to a“little high”level with a rate of 0.029/a in the past ten years.

关 键 词：气候变化 城市系统 层次分析法 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]