台风“利奇马”引导气流的计算方法研究  

Study on the calculation method of the steering flow of typhoon“Lekima”

作　　者：张江涛 耿飞 于晓龙 ZHANG Jiangtao;GENG Fei;YU Xiaolong(Hebei Meteorological Observatory,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;Xingtai Meteorological Bureau,Hebei Xingtai 054000,China;Langfang Meteorological Bureau,Hebei Langfang 065000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省气象台,石家庄050021 [2]邢台市气象局,河北邢台054000 [3]廊坊市气象局,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《气象科学》2020年第6期802-809,共8页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：河北省科技计划项目(16275405D);河北省重点研发计划项目(20375407D)。

摘　　要：为了更准确计算台风的引导气流,基于相关系数计算方法,评估了各层环境风与台风移动速度的相关性。结果表明,剔除相关性差的低层环境风后,计算得到的引导气流与台风移动的一致性有所提高;引导气流分量的峰值谷值在时间上滞后于台风的峰谷值;低层风之所以与台风相关性差或与低空急流和地形的干扰有关。针对性调整引导气流计算方法,有助于提高引导气流与台风移动速度的相关性。In order to calculate the steering flow of typhoon more accurately,the correlation between the ambient wind in each layer and the velocity of typhoon was evaluated based on the correlation coefficient method.The results show that after removing the low-layer ambient wind with poor correlation,the consistency between the calculated steering flow and typhoon velocity is improved.The peak valley value of the guided airflow component lags behind the typhoon peak valley value in time.The low level wind has poor correlation with typhoon may be because of the disturbance of low level jet stream and terrain.Adjusting the calculation method of steering flow is helpful to improve the correlation between steering flow and typhoon moving velocity.

关 键 词：引导气流 相关系数 台风“利奇马” 

分 类 号：P447[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]