中国原油价格争取成为国际基准指标的进程研判  

Study and Judgethe Process of China’s Oil Price Striving to Become the International Benchmark Index

作　　者：田洪志[1,3] 姚峰 罗浩 李慧[1] TIAN Hong-zhi;YAO Feng;LUO Hao;LI Hui(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University Xi'an 710127,China;Faculty of Economics,Kagawa University,Takamatsu 760S523,Japan;China Western Economic Development Research Institute,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China)

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127 [2]日本香川大学经济学部,日本高松7608523 [3]西北大学中国西部经济发展研究院,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《中国软科学》2020年第12期11-21,共11页China Soft Science

基　　金：西北大学2020年度“国家社科基金孵化项目”(20XNFH011);日本文部科学省科研基金基盤研究(C)(19K01583)。

摘　　要：针对研判中国原油期货价格争取成为国际基准油价指标进程中遇到的理论支撑不足问题,基于多变量时间序列因果分析理论,提出国际基准油价指标的价格发现机制、价格影响机制与价格公认机制等概念。计量经济分析结果显示:上海国际能源交易中心(INE)油价在不同周期内均对北美原油市场的西德克萨斯(WTI)油价、欧洲原油市场的布伦特油价、东亚原油市场的东京商品交易所(TCE)油价等产生了显著的单方向因果影响,具备了影响机制;同时受到其他油价的单方向因果作用微小,正在逐步形成价格发现机制;在持仓量、媒体报道、学术征引等方面目前尚未获得价格公认机制。Faced with insufficient theoretical support to study and judge the process of China’s crude oil futures price to become an international benchmark oil price index, based on the theory of multivariate time series causality analysis, the concepts of price discovery mechanism, price influence mechanism and price recognition mechanism of international benchmark oil price index are proposed. The results of econometric analysis show that the Shanghai International Energy Exchange(INE) oil price has a significant one-way causal effect on the West Texas Intermediate(WTI) oil price, the Brent oil price of the European crude oil market and the Tokyo Commodity Exchange(TCE) oil price of the East Asian crude oil market during different periods and thus has an impact mechanism. At the same time, the one-way causal effect of other oil prices is small, and the price discovery mechanism is gradually forming;the price recognition mechanism has not been obtained in terms of position, media report, academic citation, etc.

关 键 词：大宗商品 国际定价权 单方向因果测度 原油期货 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]