基于日照概率分布的光伏水泵系统供水可靠性研究  

INVESTIGATION ON WATER SUPPLY RELIABILITY OF PHOTOVOLTAIC PUMPING SYSTEM BASED ON SOLAR IRRADIATION DISTRIBUTION PROBABILITY

作　　者：谈明高[1] 田骁 吴贤芳[2] 刘厚林[1] 冯进升 Tan Minggao;Tian Xiao;Wu Xianfang;Liu Houlin;Feng Jinsheng(Research Center of Fluid Machinery Engineering and Technology,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013,China;School of Energy and Power Engineering,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏大学流体机械工程技术研究中心,镇江212013 [2]江苏大学能源与动力工程学院,镇江212013

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2020年第12期124-131,共8页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0400202);江苏省农业重点研发计划(BE2017356);江苏高校优势学科建设工程(PAPD)。

摘　　要：为评价光伏水泵系统的供水可靠性,首先根据定义日辐射峰值强度和统计方法建立太阳辐射强度概率分布模型。然后,基于建立的日照分布模型,通过试验揭示了日出水量与日照峰值的关系,从而可准确地获得光伏水泵系统出水量的输出特性。最后,引入失负荷概率(LOLP),研究日需水量QD、储水箱体积V和日照概率分布密度参数对LOLP的影响,对光伏水泵系统的供水可靠性进行评价。结果表明,可以通过基于日辐射峰值强度建立的日照分布概率模型准确预测光伏水泵系统长期出水量;当储水箱体积V大于日需水量QD的2倍时,储水箱体积V对LOLP已无影响。当中间变量G-max分布的标准差在150 W/m2以内时,可根据日照峰值的平均值来设计光伏水泵系统。This paper presents a new method to estimate the water supply reliability of a photovoltaic pumping system.First,the daily maximum solar irradiation was applied to build the probabilistic model of daily solar irradiation distribution by statistical approach. Based on the solar irradiation distribution model,a DC photovoltaic pumping system test rig was built to reveal the relationship between daily water volume and maximum solar irradiation. So,the long-term water output of photovoltaic system can be obtained accurately. Then,loss-of-load probability(LOLP) was introduced and used to establish water of the photovoltaic pumping system. Finally,the effects of water requirementQD,water tank volume V and parameters of solar irradiation distribution on water supply reliability of the photovoltaic pumping system were studied. The results indicate that long-term water output can be forecasted accurately by the probabilistic model of solar irradiation distribution. When the tank volume is bigger than 2 times of the daily water demand,the tank volume V has no effect on the LOLP. When the standard deviation of solar distribution is within 150 W/m^2,the photovoltaic pump systems can be designed according to the average of peak solar irradiation.

关 键 词：光伏系统 可靠性分析 失负荷概率 日照辐射 光伏水泵 

分 类 号：TH311[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]