美墨加协定对中国经济的影响及对策研究  

Impacts of USMCA on China’s Economy and China’s Countermeasures

作　　者：朱启荣 孙明松 袁其刚[2] Zhu Qi-rong;Sun Ming-song;Yuan Qi-gang

机构地区：[1]无锡太湖学院商学院,无锡214064 [2]山东财经大学国际经贸学院,济南250014

出　　处：《亚太经济》2020年第6期53-62,147,148,共12页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：2020年国家社科基金后期资助项目“USMCA国际经贸规则解读及对中国影响的研究”(20FJLB010)的资助。

摘　　要：为了减少新冠肺炎疫情对美国经济的影响,在特朗普极限施压下,美墨加协定于2020年7月1日正式生效。对美国、加拿大、墨西哥与中国的贸易现状进行分析,采用GTAP模型评估美墨加协定对中国经济的影响,并模拟分析中国采取扩大国内需求与加强国际经济合作来对冲美墨加协定影响的效果,得到如下结论:美墨加协定可能对我国GDP、居民收入和消费支出、社会福利水平、资本净收益率以及进出口贸易、贸易条件和产出具有负面影响;中国采取扩大国内需求与加强国际合作相结合的方法,可以减少甚至消除美墨加协定对中国经济的负面影响。In order to cushion the impact of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic on the U.S. economy, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement went into effect on July 1, 2020, under extreme pressures from Trump. Firstly,in this paper,the current state of trade between the United States, Canada, and Mexico, as well as between these countries and China,was analysed initially, then the impacts of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on China’s economic were evaluated by using GTAP model. Finally, the effects of China’s expanding its domestic demand and strengthen international economic cooperation to hedge the impact of USMCA were evaluated. The results are as follows: The Agreement may cause decline in China’s GDP, residents’ income and consumption expenditures, social welfare levels, net return ofcapital, imports and exports, output and employment, as well as terms of trade. If China strengthens international cooperation while expanding its domestic demand, it will be able to reduce or even eliminate the negative impacts of the Agreement on China’s economy.

关 键 词：美墨加协定 经济影响 应对策略 GTAP模型 

分 类 号：F117[经济管理—国际贸易]