红利税改革对现金分红宣告效应的影响研究  

The Impact of Dividend Tax Reform on Cash Dividend Announcement Effects

作　　者：王国俊[1] 王跃堂[2] WANG Guo-jun;WANG Yue-tang(School of Management and Engineering,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;School of Management,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学工程管理学院 [2]南京大学管理学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2020年第11期137-155,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“内部人诉求、股份回购与利益相关者行为——基于《公司法》专项修订的实证研究”(批准号72072082);国家自然科学基金面上项目“政府管制、市场机制与公司行为:基于股票发行注册制改革的研究”(批准号71672082);国家自然科学基金青年项目“地方国企改革的路径选择和经济后果研究”(批准号71602085)。

摘　　要：现金分红宣告效应反映了股东对现金分红的偏好,是现金分红影响公司市值的重要证据。税差理论认为由于红利税率高于资本利得税率,因此股东对现金分红的偏好很低。股东税负如何解释现金分红宣告效应?红利税改革提供了研究这一问题的良好机会。基于这一外生政策变化,本文发现,红利税改革之后,股票的波动率越低,现金分红的宣告效应越积极,符合股东的边际税率影响其现金分红成本的假设预期(即“税负偏好”假说)。红利税改革对现金分红宣告效应的影响,在发放再融资“门槛”股利、分红管制更加严格的上海证券交易所、国有企业、大股东占款较多的样本更加显著,说明企业根据股东的税负变化调整股利政策的动机(“税负迎合”效应)显著弱化了“税负偏好”假说的解释能力。进一步,红利税改革之后,相比自然人股东,基金对于现金分红的偏好显著提高,说明红利税改革对于二者的影响截然不同。本文不仅从一个新的角度研究了红利税对公司市值的影响,还拓宽了现金分红宣告效应研究的范围。随着中国证券监督管理委员会对于上市公司现金分红的监管政策日益严格,红利税改革影响的范围和广度将会大大提高,本文对于政府优化、完善红利税制有重要的启示作用。The cash dividend annoucement effects reflect the shareholders preference for cash dividends,which is an important evidence that cash dividends affect firm valuation.Tax Differential Theory proposed that due to the difference between dividend tax rate and capital gains tax rate,shareholders hold a low preference for cash dividends.How does the tax burden of shareholder explain cash dividend annoucement effects?China dividend tax reform provides an excellent opportunity to study this issue.Based on this exogenous policy change,we find that after the dividend tax reform,cash dividend announcement effects are more positive in firms with lower volatility,which is in line with the assumption that marginal tax rate of shareholders affects the cost of cash dividends(Tax Preference Hypothesis).The impact of the dividend tax reform on cash dividend annoucement effects is more pronounced in the subsample of firms paying SEO threshold dividends,listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange(whose regulation of dividend distribution is stricter),state-owned enterprises,and firms with larger other receivables.This indicates that companies’motivation to adjust dividend policy according to shareholders’tax burden changes(Tax Catering effect)significantly weakens the explanatory power of the Tax Preference Hypothesis.Further,after the dividend tax reform,compared with natural person shareholders,the funds preference for cash dividends increased significantly,indicating that the impact of dividend tax reform on them is totally different.This paper not only studies the impact of dividend tax on the company’s valuation from a new perspective,but also broadens the scope of research on cash dividend annoucement effects.As the CSRCs regulatory policy on cash dividends of listed companies becomes stricter,the scope and breadth of dividend tax impact will be greatly improved.This article provides important implications for the government to optimize and improve the dividend tax system.

关 键 词：红利税改革 现金分红宣告效应 税负偏好 税负迎合 产权性质 

分 类 号：F420[经济管理—产业经济]