居民负债压力下的财政政策效应  

The Effect of Fiscal Policy under the Pressure of Residents’Debt

作　　者：王燕武[1] 李文溥[1] WANG Yan-wu;LI Wen-pu(School of Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学宏观经济研究中心、经济学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2020年第12期28-46,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“经济特征变化下的中国减税降费政策组合研究”(批准号20BJY231);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国跨入高收入经济体的增长动力研究”(批准号19JJD790009);福建省社会科学规划一般项目“新时代财政支出对居民消费增长作用的再研究”(批准号FJ2019B20)。

摘　　要：2016年至今,中国成为世界主要经济体中居民负债率增长最快的国家。居民债务的快速累积会改变居民消费及投资行为,进而影响宏观政策效果。本文使用局部投影法考察了中国居民负债率迅速上涨对财政政策效应的影响,并结合包含住房消费属性和居民贷款违约风险的动态随机一般均衡模型分析其作用机制。研究发现,高居民负债率样本下的财政支出乘数明显小于低居民负债率样本,居民债务会抑制财政政策效应发挥。居民债务会通过改变财政支出冲击对利率、通货膨胀、住房相对价格及贷款违约风险等变量的作用,影响投资、消费和产出。进一步地,住房消费和一般消费品消费对财政支出冲击的响应在不同债务环境下出现分化,居民贷款违约风险会经借贷约束变化作用于居民消费和投资。本文的研究揭示了居民债务对宏观调控政策效果的反作用。合理控制居民部门乃至整个国民经济部门的负债率,重视债务压力下不同产品消费的变化趋势,加大对非住房消费的财税扶持力度,辅之恰当的货币政策,维护住房市场的长期健康发展,将有助于促进财政政策“增效”,加快形成经济发展新格局。Since 2016,China has become the fastest household debt ratio growing country among the major economies in the world.The quick accumulation of household debt will change the consumption and investment behavior of residents which in turn will affect the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.This paper uses local projection method to examine the impact of rapid rise in household debt ratio on the effectiveness of fiscal policy and applies the dynamic general equilibrium model that includes consumption attributes of housing and risk of resident loan default to analyze its transimission mechanism.It is found that the fiscal expenditure multiplier under high household debt ratio sample is significantly smaller than the low household debt ratio sample.Household debt will inhibit the effectiveness of fiscal policy.Household debt will affect investment,consumption,and therefore output by changing the effect of fiscal expenditure shock on interest rate,inflation,housing relative price and loan default risk.Furthermore,the response of housing consumption and general consumer goods consumption to fiscal expenditure shock is differentiated under different debt environments,and the risk of household loan default will affect consumption and investment through changes in borrowing constraints.This paper reveals the counter-effect of household debt to the effect of macro-control policies.Controlling the household debt ratio and even the entire national economic debt ratio reasonably,paying attention to the chaning trend of consumption of different products under debt pressure,increasing fiscal and tax support for non-housing consumption,supplementing appropriate monetary policies,and maintaining the long-term healthy development of housing market,will help promote the efficiency of fiscal policy and accelerate the establishment of a new economic development pattern.

关 键 词：住房消费 居民负债率 财政政策效应 

分 类 号：F123[经济管理—世界经济]