充填管道失效风险的VW-CM模型研究  

Research on Failure Risk Assessment Model of Filling Pipeline Based on Variable Weight Theory and Cloud Model

作　　者：杨仁俊 方前程[2] 荣帅[3] YANG Renjun;FANG Qiancheng;RONG Shuai(Zhumadian Preschool Education College,Zhumadian 463000,China;Institute of Architecture and Engineering,Huanghuai University,Zhumadian 463000,China;School of Resources and Safety Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China)

机构地区：[1]驻马店幼儿师范高等专科学校,河南驻马店463000 [2]黄淮学院建筑工程学院,河南驻马店463000 [3]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《金属矿山》2020年第12期67-73,共7页Metal Mine

基　　金：河南省科技攻关项目(编号:172102310742);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(编号:16A120015)。

摘　　要：充填管道失效具有随机性和模糊性特点。为定性分析充填管道系统可靠性,通过构建变权重理论(VW)和云模型(CM)的综合评判模型,选取10个影响因素建立指标评估体系,基于变权重理论计算指标权重,通过计算云的数字特征生成指标云图,实现充填管道风险等级与指标之间的相互映射与转化,通过确定单指标测度和综合确定度,基于最大隶属度原则,对大红山铜矿、河东金矿和新城金矿3个金属矿山充填管道失效等级进行了综合评判。结果表明:大红山铜矿、河东金矿和新城金矿风险等级分别为Ⅱ级、Ⅰ级和Ⅱ级,与实际情况相符,风险评价模型计算结果可靠;通过与主成分分析-BP神经网络、PSO-SVM和变异系数-TOPSIS三种数学模型对比,发现评估结论完全一致,为充填管道失效风险评价工作提供了一条可量化的新思路。According to the failure of filling pipeline has the characteristics of randomness and fuzziness,an indexevaluation system is established by constructing a comprehensive evaluation model of variable weight theory(VW)andcloud model(CM),and 10 influencing factors are selected to analyze the reliability of filling pipeline system. The indexweight is calculated by using variable weight theory,and cloud chart is generated by adopting the digital characteristics ofcloud to realize the mapping and conversion of the risk of filling pipeline and the index factors. Based on the principle ofmaximum membership degree,the failure grades of filling pipes in Dahongshan Copper Mine,Hedong Gold Mine andXincheng Gold Mine are comprehensively evaluated by determining the single index and the comprehensive degree of deter-mination. The results show that the risk levels of Dahongshan Copper Mine,Hedong Gold Mine and Xincheng Gold Mine aregrade II,grade I and grade II respectively,which are consistent with the actual situation,so the calculation results of therisk assessment model are reliable. By comparing with the three mathematical models of the principal component analysis BPneural network,PSO-SVM and the variation coefficient-TOPSIS,it is found that the evaluation conclusion is completely con-sistent,which provides a new quantifiable way of thinking for risk assessment on failure of filling pipeline.

关 键 词：充填管道 变权重理论 云模型 失效 

分 类 号：TD853.34[矿业工程—金属矿开采]