中国间接税税负归宿的测算:模型与实证  

Measurement of Indirect Tax Incidence in China:A Model and Empirical Analysis

作　　者：苏国灿 童锦治[1] 魏志华[1] 刘诗源[1] SU Guocan;TONG Jinzhi;WEI Zhihua;LIU Shiyuan(School of Economics,Xiamen University;Xiamen Audit Bureau)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院财政系,361005 [2]厦门市审计局,361005

出　　处：《经济研究》2020年第11期84-100,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国上市公司避税天堂投资:动机、经济后果与治理机制”(71972163)的资助。

摘　　要：关于中国企业的税收负担,存在“死亡税”论和“轻税”论两种截然相反的观点,其争议焦点在于对间接税税负转嫁与归宿的不同理解。本文基于现有研究,重新构建了间接税税负转嫁模型,并利用宏观数据对中国间接税的税负归宿进行了测算,试图解答“中国企业到底承担了多少的间接税”这一重要问题。研究结果表明:(1)中国的间接税并没有完全转嫁,而是由企业和最终使用者共同承担,企业承担了其中的70.29%,最终使用者承担了29.71%。(2)企业实际承担的间接税负因产业而异,第一、第二和第三产业企业分别为1.12%、2.93%和5.41%。上游企业和企业自身的税负转嫁能力以及名义税负是决定企业实际承担间接税大小的主要因素。(3)最终使用者实际承担的间接税负担因消费主体而异,由高到低分别为城镇居民6.92%、农村居民6.33%、政府部门5.44%以及出口部门4.17%。消费结构的不同是决定不同最终使用者实际承担间接税大小的主要因素。(4)企业自身承担的间接税税负通过降低工资和降低利润的方式转由企业员工和企业所有者承担。本研究对客观评价“减税降费”政策效应和正确认识中国企业的税收负担状况具有重要的意义。Observers of China's economy have taken two contradictory views on the tax burdens borne by China's enterprises.One view is that the country has imposed a so-called“death tax rate”,as the tax burden borne by Chinese enterprises has increased to more than 40%,which is driving enterprises to the wall.The other view is that China imposes a“light tax rate”,and that the actual tax burden on enterprises is no more than 10%because most taxes are indirect and transferrable.How can such a huge gap in perspective be explained?This dispute results from differing understandings of whether indirect taxes can be completely transferred.An enterprise s tax burden will be considered a death tax if we assume that the costs of indirect taxes cannot be passed on to others,and that therefore the taxes must be entirely borne by enterprises.The burden will be considered alight tax if we assume that indirect taxes can be completely shifted to consumers.Obviously,to judge between these two arguments,it is necessary to find reasonable explanations and measurements concerning the possibilities for shifting the burdens of indirect taxes.The incidence and practice of indirect tax shifting has always been an important issue in research on public finance,and two main analytic methods have been applied:Partial Equilibrium Analysis(PEA)and General Equilibrium Analysis(GEA).The method most commonly used to assess the effects of tax systems is PEA,which involves two specific approaches,or sets of assumptions:(1)Under the assumption that markets operate independently,the practice and incidence of tax shifting between enterprises and consumers can happen in three ways.(2)Under the assumption that the indirect taxes are completely passed on.In considering the two above-mentioned methods of conducting PEA,this investigation seeks to first reconstruct the indirect tax burden transfer model,and to do so by considering not only the interconnections of the market,but also the possibility of incomplete or excessive transfers of the tax burden.Then,

关 键 词：间接税 税负转嫁能力 税负归宿 实际税负 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F275