中国人口惯性负增长模拟分析  

A Simulation of Inertial Population Decline in China

作　　者：周长洪 Zhou Changhong

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学社会与人口学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2020年第6期78-86,127,128,共11页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：江苏省人口学会开放基金“新时期江苏人口工作转型及其体制机制创新研究”(编号JSPA2019006)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：文章在讨论人口动量和人口惯性概念来源和含义的基础上,分析人口惯性增长和惯性减少的现象,认为人口惯性变动期起始于总和生育率下降或上升到更替水平的年份,结束于人口总量达到零增长(人口规模达到峰值)之时。文章指出,人口惯性增长期和惯性减少期均大约等于人口平均寿命与人口代际间隔之差,在惯性变动期间人口数量会沿原方向继续增长或减少。文章在3种假设方案下,对中国人口未来的惯性负增长进行模拟,结果显示,人口惯性负增长持续时间大约为50年,在此期间人口会有2亿~3亿的下降。那种认为总和生育率回升到更替水平就会使现有人口规模保持不变的判断是不正确的。在制定人口发展战略时,必须认识到人口惯性负增长的存在,提前预见其后果。On the basis of discussing the meaning and causes of population momentum, this paper analyzes the population in-ertial change in China. It argues that the period of population inertial change begins when fertility declines(or rises) to the replacement level, and ends when the population reaches the peak size. Accordingly, the time span of inertial population change is approximately equal to the difference between life expectancy at birth and the average age of women giving births. The population size will continue to rise(or decline) in the period of inertial change. The paper simulates the negative population inertial growth in China in the near future by using three sets of hypotheses. The results show that the inertial population decline lasts about 50 years, which is expected to reduce the population by 200-300 millions. Therefore, it is misleading in arguing that China’s population will stop declining once the total fertility rate goes back to the replacement level.

关 键 词：人口动量 人口惯性 惯性变动期 惯性负增长 人口发展战略 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]