民进党当局的经济“台独”路线与两岸科技产业合作风险研判  

DPP’s Economic Route of“Taiwan Independence”and Risk of Crossstraits S&T Industrial exchanges

作　　者：李应博[1] Li Yingbo

机构地区：[1]清华大学台湾研究院

出　　处：《台湾研究》2020年第6期26-33,共8页Taiwan Studies

摘　　要：当前两岸关系所处形势日益严峻。民进党当局一系列的“台独”操作不断升高台海风险等级。在经济上,蔡英文企图尽快与大陆“脱钩”,这为在两岸产业交流中曾扮演重要角色的科技产业造成了巨大的风险。本文在回顾两岸科技产业交流的经验、规律和特征的基础上,采用实证数据评估了两岸科技交流效果,剖析了民进党当局的经济“台独”路线;研判了未来四年两岸科技产业的潜在风险;回应了两岸科技产业的机会之窗。文章最后对两岸科技产业未来走向的基本判断。At present,the situation of cross-Straits relations is increasingly grim.A series of“Taiwan independence”operations conducted by Taiwan DPP have continuously raised the risk level across the Taiwan Strait.Tsai Ing-wen tried to“decouple”from the mainland as soon as possible by advocating“Taiwan independence”of economy.This poses a huge risk for S&T industry,which has played an important role in cross-Strait industrial exchanges.On the basis of reviewing the experience,rules and characteristics of cross-Strait S&T exchanges,this paper establishes an empirical model to evaluate the effects of cross-Strait S&T exchanges,and analyzes DPP’s economic route of“Taiwan independence”.Then the paper provides the judgment of cross-Strait S&T industry risk.Finally,the paper answers the question of whether there will be communication opportunities in cross-Strait S&T industry.

关 键 词：两岸关系 科技产业合作 民进党 “台独” 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学] F127.58[政治法律—中外政治制度]