环境政策不确定性、双向FDI与低碳全要素生产率的关系  

Relationship between environmental policy uncertainty,two-way FDI and low-carbon TFP

作　　者：王慧[1,2] 孙慧[1,2] 肖涵月[1,2] 辛龙 WANG Hui;SUN Hui;XIAO Hanyue;XIN Long(Center for Innovation Management Research of Xinjiang,Urumqi Xinjiang 830046,China;College of Economics and Management of Xinjiang University,Urumqi Xinjiang 830046,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学经济与管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2020年第11期75-86,共12页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“新疆资源型产业污染集聚、损益偏离与包容性绿色增长”(批准号:71963030);新疆高校科研基金“新疆绿色低碳循环发展创新团队”(批准号:XJEDU2017T003);“推动新疆文化旅游产业成为战略性支柱产业与绿色低碳发展路径研究”(批准号:XJEDU2019SI002);新疆自然科学基金“碳排放约束下新疆工业经济绩效及低碳转型路径研究”(批准号:2017D01C071)。

摘　　要：环境政策不确定性凸显、环保压力日益增大的背景下,如何更有效地通过双向FDI助推工业行业低碳发展与经济增长双重目标的实现亟待关注。基于2004—2017年33个工业行业数据,采用非导向型EBM-Malmquist-Luenberger模型对工业行业低碳全要素生产率进行测度,以慧科数据库我国内地10种重要报纸为基础,统计相关关键词和文章频次对环境政策不确定性进行测度,并在理论分析的基础上从深度、广度两个维度分别检验了双向FDI与低碳全要素生产率间的主效应,以及环境政策不确定性在二者间的调节效应,并分异质性行业类型与环境政策不确定性情景进行讨论。研究结果表明:①IFDI、OFDI的深度和广度均抑制行业低碳全要素生产率提升,IFDI行为支持“污染天堂”假说,双向FDI发挥显著互补效应,有效抑制行业碳排放。②环境政策不确定性影响双向投资决策的规模与方向,对IFDI与OFDI的影响呈非线性且相反态势。③环境政策不确定性对IFDI广度、OFDI深度与低碳全要素生产率间关系均发挥显著正向调节效应,对IFDI深度、OFDI广度与低碳全要素生产率则呈负向调节效应,且OFDI广度的逆向绿色技术溢出效应促进低碳全要素生产率提升。④双向FDI与低碳全要素生产率间关系在污染密集型行业与相对清洁型行业、高低环境政策不确定性下存在异质性结果,污染密集型行业OFDI深度促进低碳全要素生产率,说明发生碳转移现象;低环境政策不确定性下IFDI广度与OFDI行为的效果显著降低。研究的政策启示包括提升外商投资企业环保门槛、强化对外投资企业逆向技术溢出、推动双向投资企业作用由“污染天堂”向“污染光环”转变等。Under the background of the increasing uncertainty of environmental policies and pressure on environmental protection,how to effectively promote the realization of both low-carbon development and economic growth in the industrial sector through two-way FDI needs urgent attention.On the basis of the data of 33 industries from 2004 to 2017,low-carbon total factor productivity(LCTFP)was measured by the non-oriented EBM-Malmquist-Luenberger model,and environmental policy uncertainty was measured by the frequency of relevant keywords based on the 10 major newspapers of the Huike database on China’s mainland.On the basis of a theoretical analysis,the study examined the main effect between two-way FDI and LCTFP from the two dimensions of depth and breadth,tested the moderating effect of environmental policy uncertainty,and discussed the heterogeneity of industry and environmental policy uncertainty.The conclusions showed that:①Both the depth and breadth of IFDI and OFDI inhibited the improvement of industrial LCTFP,IFDI behavior supported the pollution paradise hypothesis,and two-way FDI exerted a complementary effect,effectively suppressing carbon emissions.②Environmental policy uncertainty affected the scale and direction of two-way investment decision,yet had a nonlinear and opposite impact on IFDI and OFDI.③Environmental policy uncertainty exerted a significant positive moderating effect on the relations between the breadth of IFDI,the depth of OFDI and LCTFP,and a negative moderating effect on the relations between the depth of IFDI,the breadth of OFDI and LCTFP;the reverse green technology spillover effect of the breadth of OFDI benefited LCTFP.④The relationship between two-way FDI and LCTFP was heterogeneous under pollution-intensive industries and relatively clean industries as well as high and low environmental policy uncertainty.The depth of OFDI in pollution intensive industries promoted LCTFP,indicating the occurrence of carbon transfer;the effect of the breadth of IFDI and the behavior of OFDI was

关 键 词：环境政策不确定性 双向FDI 低碳全要素生产率 工业行业 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]