全球海运贸易平均运距连续五年增长  

One underlying trend going the distance…

出　　处：《中国远洋海运》2020年第12期58-58,9,共2页Maritime China

摘　　要：关键提示2020年全球海运贸易量的平均运距较2015年增加2.6%,增幅接近2015-2019年海运贸易量约2.5%年均增幅(以吨计),这意味着运距增长额外带来相当于一年海运贸易量增长所推动的运力需求。2020年初爆发的新冠疫情对全球海运贸易造成了严重影响。虽然随着疫情逐步得到控制,部分国家经济活动恢复,许多细分市场的贸易量正在逐步改善,但是总体而言今年海运贸易总量预计仍将小幅下滑,以吨计跌幅为3.6%。即便如此,近年来全球海运贸易出现的一种发展趋势仍在持续,即平均运输距离连续多年同比增长。2020 has seen major disruption to the shipping markets and a"shock"to seaborne trade.Volumes in many sectors are now returning,but on a full year basis global seaborne trade is still set to have fallen(latest estimate:-3.6%in tonnes).However,one underlying trade trend of recent years has sustained,with the"average haul"of seaborne trade looking set to have increased for the fifth consecutive year.So,which way now for average haul?Future trade trends are the focus of significant debate,and there are countervailing arguments.The"green transition"poses broad questions over the carbon footprint of long-haul trade,whilst the nature of the US’s role in energy shipping will impact on seaborne distances and switching away from coal could boost the overall seaborne average haul.Geopolitics(not least between the US and China)will also play a key role,and there is much debate around slowing globalisation and the increased prominence of regional trading"blocs",which would drive shorter haul trade.Focus on"de-risking"of supply chains could suggest similar,though the resilience of"Factory Asia"has been a theme of the COVID-19 crisis.So,further progress in the current average haul trend can’t simply be assumed.However,this year at least,despite so much dramatic disruption,one underlying trend of recent years has remained consistent.

关 键 词：全球海运 平均运距 海运贸易 细分市场 贸易量 发展趋势 

分 类 号：F551[经济管理—产业经济]