面向仿真推演的认知不确定性仿真建模范式  

Cognitive Uncertainty Simulation and Modeling Paradigm Oriented to Simulation Deduction

作　　者：聂凯[1] 孟庆海[1] NIE Kai;MENG Qinghai(No.91550 Troops of PLA,Dalian 116023)

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军91550部队,大连116023

出　　处：《舰船电子工程》2020年第12期70-73,121,共5页Ship Electronic Engineering

基　　金：装备发展部“十三五”预研基金项目(编号:61400010109)资助。

摘　　要：针对态势感知与理解中的不确定性复杂多样、自主智能化不足的问题,提出了构建面向仿真推演的认知不确定性仿真建模范式,对范式的含义进行了界定,梳理了范式的5个特征:遵循科学原理、态势要素和知识的表示方式、不确定性认知模型、不确定性推理机制、范式的影响,归纳了构建范式需要进行的研究内容:基于因果推理机器学习算法、不确定性认知、元数据结构等不确定性仿真建模方法。该范式及其关键技术的深入研究能增强态势智能认知的准确性和军事指挥决策的精准性。Cognitive uncertainty simulation and modeling paradigm for wargaming is proposed for the large quantity uncertain⁃ties and missing autonomous intelligence in situation cognition.The meaning of the paradigm is defined and the five characters of the paradigm are summarized including scientific principles,the representation methods of situation element and knowledge,uncertain⁃ty cognition model,reasoning methods of uncertainty,influence of the paradigm.Also the key simulation and modeling methods need to be researched are concluded such as the reasoning methods based on causal inference,uncertainty cognition reasoning,rea⁃soning methods based on metadata structure.The deeply study of the presented paradigm and key technologies can enhance the pre⁃cision of situation cognition and veracity of military command and decision.

关 键 词：仿真建模范式 不确定性 自主智能化 因果推理 不确定性认知 元数据结构 

分 类 号：E917[军事]