1979-2018年西藏自治区气候与冰川冻土变化及其对可再生能源的潜在影响  

Changes in climate,glaciers and permafrost during 1979-2018 in Tibetan Autonomous Region and their potential impacts on renewable energy

作　　者：邹宓君 邵长坤 阳坤 ZOU Mijun;SHAO Changkun;YANG Kun(Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学地球系统科学系,北京100084

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2020年第6期980-991,共12页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(sxxz10315);科技部重点研发项目(2017YFA0603703)。

摘　　要：作为全球气候变化敏感区和生态脆弱区,西藏地区拥有丰富的可再生能源。本研究基于多源数据产品(地基和遥感观测)分析了近40 a(1979-2018年)西藏自治区气候和冰川冻土的变化状况及它们对可再生能源的潜在影响。结果表明:1)1979-2018年间藏北高原暖湿化,藏南暖干化。全区站点平均升温速率高达0.54℃·(10 a)^-1;藏南降水略有减少而藏北降水增加;2)日照时数和风速普遍显著下降,但风速在2002年左右停止下降,2010年以后有所回升;3)在快速升温下,西藏地区冰川快速退缩,其中以藏东南地区和念青唐古拉山的退缩幅度最大,冰川最大减薄速率可达8.0 m·(10 a)^-1;多年冻土所占面积约43%,但稳定性较弱,退化严重。冰川退缩和冻土退化在短期内对河流径流有所贡献。因此,过去40 a西藏太阳能和风能减少,水能因冰川冻土变化的贡献有所增加,但预测水能的未来变化比较困难。Tibet is rich in renewable energy,while also being highly ecologically fragile and sensitive to climate change.In this study,the changes in climate,glaciers and permafrost in Tibetan Autonomous Region during the past 40 years(1979-2018)and their potential impacts on renewable energy were analyzed based on multi-source data.The results show the following:1)During 1979-2018,northern Tibet has become warmer and wetter while southern Tibet has become warmer and drier.The air temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.54℃·(10 a)^-1.In addition,the precipitation has increased in northern Tibet,while having slightly decreased in the south.2)The sunshine durations,as well as the wind speed,showed significant decreases.However,the wind speed ceased declining around 2002,and rose again after 2010.3)The glaciers retreated rapidly,especially in southeastern Tibet and the Nyainqentanglha region,with the maximum thinning rate exceeding 8.0 m·(10 a)^-1.Permafrost covers approximately 43%of Tibet,with weak stability and strong degradation.In summary,solar and wind energy have decreased in Tibet in the past 40 years.Hydropower has increased due to glacier retreating and permafrost degradation,yet its accurate prediction remains a challenge.

关 键 词：气候变化 冰川 冻土 可再生能源 西藏 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P343.6[动力工程及工程热物理] TK01