中俄东线D1 422 mm管道可靠性评估分析  

Reliability Assessment of D1422 mm Pipeline in China-Russia Eastern Natural Gas Pipeline

作　　者：蒋庆梅[1] 张小强[1] 李宝华[1] 何明杰[2] JIANG Qingmei;ZHANG Xiaoqiang;LI Baohua;HE Mingjie(China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Co.,Ltd.;Luliang Oilfield Operation Area of Xinjiang Oilfield,CNPC)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气管道工程有限公司 [2]中国石油新疆油田公司陆梁油田作业区

出　　处：《油气田地面工程》2021年第1期76-82,88,共8页Oil-Gas Field Surface Engineering

摘　　要：中俄东线天然气管道工程的黑河—长岭段干线采用D1422 mm、X80M、12 MPa大口径高钢级高压管道输送,是我国迄今为止最大管径的输气管道系统,工程建设和运行维护经验相对较少。在目前设计、材料、施工和运行维护标准及水平上,管道能否安全运行需重点关注。通过对钢管及环焊缝性能参数统计分析,得出目前钢管性能及环焊缝指标满足技术要求。利用我国天然气管道可靠性评价技术研究成果,对黑河—长岭段干线管道各类数据资料收集、整合和分析,识别出了管道潜在风险因素,基于可靠性方法计算了管道在各种潜在风险因素下的失效概率,同时对于沿线的高后果区域,选取代表性地段进行了单独评价。计算结果表明,管道在服役30年内,若进行8年一次的内检测和维护,管道沿线最大失效概率均满足目标可靠度要求,高后果区域典型地段的失效概率也远低于目标允许值。这说明目前的设计、材料及运行维护参数选择是合理的,能够保障管道建成后安全平稳运行。The Heihe-Changling trunk line of China-Russia Eastern Natural Gas Pipeline adopts D1422 mm,X80M,12MPa large-diameter high-steel high pressure conveying,which is China's gas pipeline system with the largest pipe diameter so far,and has relatively little experience in project construction and operation and maintenance.Through the statistical analysis of performance parameters of pipe steel and girth welds,it is obtained that the properties of steel pipe and girth welds meet the technical requirements.Based on the research results of natural gas pipeline reliability evaluation technology in China,the potential risk factors of the pipeline are identified by collecting,integrating,and analyzing all kinds of data of the trunk line in the Heihe-Changling section.Based on the reliability method,the failure probability of the pipeline under various potential risk factors is calculated,and the representative sections along the pipeline with high consequences are evaluated separately.The results show that within 30 years of pipeline service,the maximum failure probability along the pipeline can meet the requirements of target reliability if the pipeline is tested and maintained once every 8 years.The failure probability of typical sections in high-consequence areas is also far lower than the allowable target value.This indicates that the current design,material,operation,and maintenance parameters are reasonable and can guarantee the safe and stable operation of the pipeline after completion.

关 键 词：中俄东线 D1422 mm 目标可靠度 失效概率 

分 类 号：TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备] TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]