2005—2018 年武汉市流行性腮腺炎流行特征分析及疫情预测  

Epidemiological characteristics analysis and epidemic prediction of mumps in Wuhan City from 2005-2018

作　　者：彭颖[1] 汪鹏[1] 赵球平[2] 蔡黎[1] 鲁莎[1] 孔德广[1] PENG Ying;WANG Peng;ZHAO Qiu-ping;CAI Li;LU Sha;KONG De-guang(Institute of Communicable Diseases Control and Prevention,Wuhan Center for Diseases Control and Prevention,Wuhan Hubei,430023,China;Institute of Communicable Diseases Control and Prevetion,Xiantao Center for Diseases Control and Prevention,Xiantao Hubei,433000,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉市疾病预防控制中心传染病防制所,湖北武汉430023 [2]仙桃市疾病预防控制中心传染病防制所,湖北仙桃433000

出　　处：《职业与健康》2020年第21期2962-2965,共4页Occupation and Health

基　　金：湖北省卫生健康科研基金(WJ2019H402);武汉市卫生健康科研基金(WG19Q05);武汉市中青年医学骨干人才培养工程(2017—2020年)。

摘　　要：目的分析2005—2018年武汉市流行性腮腺炎的流行特征并预测发病趋势,为流行性腮腺炎的科学防控提供参考依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法,对中国疾病预防控制信息系统中报告的武汉市2005年1月—2018年12月流行性腮腺炎疫情资料进行统计分析,建立ARIMA乘积季节模型,预测2019年武汉市流行性腮腺炎疫情趋势。结果2005—2018年武汉市共报告流行性腮腺炎病例35730例,无死亡病例报告,年均发病率为25.90/10万,近几年发病呈现快速上升趋势。发病有明显的季节性,每年4—7月是流行高峰期。发病率男性高于女性(χ2=1681.59,P<0.01),病例主要集中在5~14岁年龄段。中心城区年均发病率高于远城区。根据拟合优度筛选最佳模型ARIMA(1,0,2)×(0,1,1)12,预测2019年整体疫情将有所缓解,其中1—6月的发病和实际相符,平均绝对百分误差为23.64%。结论2005—2018年武汉市流行性腮腺炎呈周期性高发,学生和幼托儿童是主要发病人群,需进一步探索有效防控策略。ARIMA模型预测效果较好,可用于流行性腮腺炎发病趋势动态分析和短期预测。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Wuhan City from 2005-2018,predict the disease trend,and provide reference for the scientific prevention and control of mumps.Methods Descriptive epidemiology method was applied to analyze the epidemic data of mumps cases in Wuhan City from 2005-2018,which were collected from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System.The seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was established to forecast the epidemic trend of mumps in Wuhan City in 2019.Results Totally 35730 mumps cases were reported in Wuhan City from 2005-2018.There was no death case.The average annual incidence rate was 25.90/lakh,and the incidence showed a rapid upward trend in recent years.The epidemic showed an obvious seasonality,and the peak appeared April to July every year.The incidence in males was higher than that in females(χ2=1681.59,P<0.01),and most of patients were people aged 5-14 years old.The average annual incidence rate of urban centers was higher than that of far urban areas.ARIMA(1,0,2)×(0,1,1)12 was selected according to the goodness of fit.It is predicted that the overall epidemic situation will be alleviated in 2019,and the predicted incidence from January to June was consistent with the actual value.The mean absolutely percentage error MAPE was 23.64%.Conclusion Mumps presents a periodically high incidence in Wuhan City from 2005-2018.Students and kindergarten children are the main population of the disease,and it is necessary to further explore effective prevention and control strategies.ARIMA model has good prediction effect and can be used for dynamic analysis and short-term prediction of mumps incidence trend.

关 键 词：流行性腮腺炎 流行特征 疾病监测 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]