乏燃料多式联运动态风险评估研究  

Research on dynamic risk chain risk assessment of spent fuel multimodal transport

作　　者：张洋 李荷华[2] ZHANG Yang;LI He-hua(College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Second Polytechnic University, Shanghai 201206, China;College of Management Science and Engineering, Shanghai Second Polytechnic University, Shanghai 201206, China)

机构地区：[1]上海第二工业大学经济与管理学院,上海201206 [2]上海第二工业大学管理科学与工程学院,上海201206

出　　处：《广西大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第6期1429-1438,共10页Journal of Guangxi University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71503166);上海第二工业大学管理科学与工程学科建设项目(XXKPY1606)。

摘　　要：考虑到乏燃料具有辐射性,在其进行多式联运过程中风险的评估至关重要,而风险的不确定性主要体现在系统性和动态变化性。在研究中提出一种将风险评估转变成运输延迟的概率的动态演变方法。通过故障树分析运输途中会发生乏燃料泄漏从而导致延迟的主要风险,并结合故障树通过改进的熵权层次分析确定各风险的权重,最终利用乏燃料特性来评估风险。对于运输期间发生的风险,在离散的点中动态地评估风险情形概率,更加准确地评估运输中的风险。Considering the radioactive nature of spent fuel,risk assessment in the multi-model transport process is crucial,while the uncertainty of risk is mainly reflected in the systematic and dynamic variability.In this study,we propose a dynamic evolution method to transform risk assessment into the probability of transport delay.In combination with fault tree,the weight of each risk is determined by the improved hierarchy analysis.Besides,we use spent fuel characteristics to assess risk.For the risks occurring during transportation,we dynamically evaluate the probability of risk situation in discrete points,and evaluate the transportation risks accurately.

关 键 词：乏燃料 多式联运 动态风险评估 仿真 

分 类 号：U298[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]