集对分析在岩溶区流域水资源预测中的应用  

Application of Set Pair Analysis in Water Resources Prediction of Karst Basin

作　　者：莫崇勋[1,2,3] 王亚芳 阮俞理 莫细喜 孙桂凯[1,2,3] 麻荣永 MO Chongxun;WANG Yafang;RUAN Yuli;MO Xixi;SUN Guikai;MA Rongyong(College of Civil and Architectural Engineering,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,Guangxi,China;Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education,Nanning 530004,Guangxi,China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety,Nanning 530004,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西南宁530004 [2]工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室,广西南宁530004 [3]广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《水力发电》2021年第1期19-22,89,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51969004);广西自然科学基金(2017GXNSFAA198361)。

摘　　要：根据中国西南典型岩溶区澄碧河流域内平塘站1963年~2007年的水文气象资料,利用集对分析方法(SPA)的相似预测模型,分析和预测该流域水资源情况,评价集对分析方法在岩溶区流域的适用性。结果表明,1993年~2007年径流预测的NSE为0.687,RSR为0.559,整体达到“良”等级,平均误差11.4%,预测精度符合要求;集对分析方法在岩溶区流域中长期水资源预测中有很好的适用性,能为流域水资源调查和评价工作服务,特别是在实测资料不足的岩溶区中小流域能发挥重要作用。Based on the hydrologic and meteorological data of Pingtang Station in Chengbi River Basin of Southwest China from 1963 to 2007,the water resources of the basin is analyzed and forecasted by using the similar prediction model of set pair analysis,and the applicability of set pair analysis in karst basin area is evaluated.The results show that the NSE and RSR of runoff prediction in 1993-2007 are 0.707 and 0.541 respectively,which are good in the whole with an average error of 11.4%.The prediction accuracy meets the requirements.The set pair analysis method has a good applicability in the medium and long-term water resources prediction of the karst basin,and it can service the water resources investigation and evaluation in the river basin,especially in the small and medium-sized basins in karst areas with insufficient measured data.

关 键 词：水资源预测 集对分析 适用性 岩溶区流域 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]