尼日利亚交通事故、死亡率和事故率的探索性空间分析  

Exploratory spatial analysis of traffic crashes,road mortality and morbidity in Nigeria

作　　者：因吉巴·希奥玛·阿金耶米 龚华燕(译) Yingigba Chioma Akinyemi(University of Ibadan)

机构地区：[1]尼日利亚伊巴丹大学地理系 [2]不详

出　　处：《国际社会科学杂志（中文版）》2020年第4期96-113,7,11,共20页International Social Science Journal（Chinese Edition）

摘　　要：作者考察了2007-2017年间尼日利亚道路交通事故、死亡率和事故率的空间分布,分析了接触状况、道路网络和社会人口特征对伤亡情况的影响。数据来自尼日利亚联邦道路安全局和《年度统计汇总》。我们采用了空间统计技术来确定交通事故、死亡率和事故率分布模式,用普通最小二乘法(OLS)和地理加权回归(GWR)模型来识别重要变量。期间交通事故数量和死亡率分别下降了47.9%和46.3%,而事故率增加78.6%。交通事故、死亡率和事故率明显聚集在尼日尔州、卡杜纳州、联邦首都直辖区、科吉州和纳萨尔瓦州。联邦首都直辖区的交通事故和受伤人数最多,卡杜纳州死亡人数最多。明显影响死亡率和事故率空间变化的变量为沥青混凝土路、修整道路和土路的长度、失业情况和人口密度。本研究表明,道路类型是导致交通事故死亡率和事故率的主要因素。应落实措施来应对交通事故,如在道路施工过程中落实安全标准,实施减速策略,以及强制使用安全带和对儿童的约束。This study examined the spatial distribution of road traffic crashes,mortality and morbidity in Nigeria for the period 2007-2017.The influence of exposure,road network and socio-demographic characteristics on fatalities and injuries was analysed.Data were obtained from Federal Road Safety Corps and Annual Abstract of Statistics.Spatial statistical techniques were employed to determine the pattern of crashes,mortality and morbidity.Ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression models were used to identify significant variables.Crashes and mortality declined by 47.9%and 46.3%respectively,while morbidity increased by 78.6%.Crashes,mortality and morbidity were significantly clustered and high in Niger,Kaduna,FCT,Kogi and Nassarawa States.FCT recorded the highest crashes and injured persons,while Kaduna recorded the highest fatalities.Variables that significantly influenced spatial variation of mortality and morbidity were length of asphaltic concrete,surfaced dressed and earth roads,unemployment and population density.This study shows that type of road is a major factor that contributes to road crash mortality and morbidity.Crash countermeasures such as implementation of safety standards during road construction,speed reduction strategies and enforcement of seat belt use and child restraint should be implemented.

关 键 词：探索性空间分析 失业情况 事故率 伤亡情况 统计汇总 空间统计 接触状况 死亡人数 

分 类 号：F41[经济管理—产业经济]