次季节—季节(S2S)预测数据分析与应用  

Analysis and Application of Sub-Seasonal To Seasonal Prediction Data

作　　者：胡星[1] 张志强[1] 张强[1] 王洁 HU Xing;ZHANG Zhiqiang;ZHANG Qiang;WANG Jie(National Meteorological Information Center,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]国家气象信息中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科技》2020年第6期779-787,共9页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：预报预测平台专项(YBQXPTXM 2019-02);中国气象局“2019年山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程建设”共同资助。

摘　　要：S2S(Sub-seasonal to Seasonal)国际合作计划的主要目标是提升次季节-季节多模式预测能力,重点关注0~60d的预报预测技巧。中国气象局承担了S2S数据的归档备份任务,收集参与该计划的11个中心S2S模式数据,本文梳理了该数据资源的基本情况,介绍了数据的模式、要素及文件,研究了数据的读取和分析方法,评估了数据的正确性、完整性和时效性,运用模式回算数据,计算候、周、旬时间尺度的预测值和距平值,开展了相关数据产品的可视化工作,对照同期ECMWF距平图形产品进行分析,推动S2S数据产品在中国气象局预报预测业务中应用。The main goal of the sub-seasonal to seasonal(S2 S)international forecasting research project is to improve S2 Sforecast skill,and especially the 0-60 day predictability skills.The China Meteorological Data Service Center takes part into the construction of the S2 Smulti-model database,has collected the S2 S data of 11 original centers in the project.This article introduces the list of S2 Smodel data,parameters,and file naming rules,discusses the data read algorithm,data analysis algorithm,and data visualization algorithm,evaluates the correctness,completeness and timeliness of the data,calculates the historical average of the data up to 20 years of reforecasts,calculates the anomaly and forecast values of the 5-day,7-day and 10-day scales,and then introduces the S2 Svisualization product applications.Based on the analysis of the ECMWF anomaly graphic products in the same period,the S2 Sdata products are promoted in the short-term climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration.

关 键 词：S2S 距平 可视化 短期气候预测 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]