四川日最高最低气温预报订正产品评估  

Capability Assessment of Subjective and Objective Refinement of Maximum and Minimum Temperature Prediction in Sichuan

作　　者：杨倩 陈朝平[2] 陈权亮 YANG Qian;CHEN Chaoping;CHEN Quanliang(College of Atmospheric Science,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Plateau Atmospheric&Environment Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610225;Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Service,Chengdu 610072)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,成都610225 [2]四川省气象台,成都610072

出　　处：《气象科技》2020年第6期887-897,共11页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(省重点实验室2018-重点-06);基于集合预报的中期概率预报技术研发(2015BAC03B01)基金共同资助。

摘　　要：基于SCMOC、SNWFD、SPCO 3种模式2016—2018年的逐日2m日最高、最低温度预报资料及对应的实况站点数据,分析讨论了四川地区精细化订正产品的预报性能,结果表明:(1) 3种模式中,客观方法 SPCO与人工订正SNWFD在最高、最低温度的预报能力相当,均高于SCMOC;(2)四川地区东部的预报效果整体好于西部地区,且川西高原、凉山州地区预报误差最大;(3)对于季节,夏、秋两季预报效果好于春、冬季节;(4)随着预报时效的增加,预报误差逐渐增大;(5)四川地区,2m日最低温度的预报效果好于日最高温度。Based on the daily 2-m maximum and minimum temperature forecast data of SCMOC,SNWFD and SPCO models in 2016-2018 and actual temperature data of stations,this paper analyzes and discusses the forecast performance of refined and revised products in Sichuan.The results show that:(1)Among the three models,the prediction capabilities of SPCO and SNWFD for the max/min temperatures are comparable,and both are higher than SCMOC.(2)The forecasting effect in the eastern part of Sichuan is better than that in the western region,and the forecast error is the greatest in the western Sichuan Plateau and Liangshan Prefecture.(3)For the seasons,the forecasting effect is better in summer and autumn than that in the spring and winter.(4)The forecast error increases with the increase of the forecasting time.(5)The forecast of the minimum temperature in Sichuan is better than that of the maximum temperature.

关 键 词：四川地区 最高温度 最低温度 平均绝对误差 预报性能 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]