中国居民能源消费现状和趋势分析——“十四五”居民节能相关问题研究  

Analysis of Current and Future Trends of Residential Energy Consumption in China

作　　者：杨洁 KHANNA Ninab 李鹏程[1] 刘猛[1] 刘韧[1] 陈海红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国标准化研究院,北京100191 [2]美国劳伦斯伯克利实验室,美国94720

出　　处：《中国能源》2020年第12期8-13,共6页Energy of China

基　　金：中国标准化研究院院长基金重大项目《资源高效利用标准化技术体系构建和应用》(编号:542019Y-6659);国家重点研发计划重点专项项目《先进高效中小型三相异步电机技术方案和能效标准研究》(编号:2019YFE0192300)。

摘　　要：随着中国经济快速增长、城市化进程地加快、居民生活水平的不断提高,中国居民生活能源消费总量呈逐步上升趋势,已占能源消费总量的13%左右。本文通过大量文献数据调研、对比分析、国际对比、趋势预测等,对中国居民能源消费现状、结构特点及发展趋势进行了研究。结果显示,“十四五”期间,我国居民能源消费量仍有较大的增长空间,预计人均生活能源消费量将由2017年的415.6 kgce增长到2025年的585 kgce,年增长率在4%左右。各建筑气候区域以及城镇和农村居民的人均生活能源消费也存在差异,虽然城镇居民的人均可支配收入是农村居民的二至三倍,但全国农村居民平均人均生活消费量自2017年开始超过城镇居民平均水平,农村居民节能潜力较大。据预测,2025年,我国人均生活能源消费将超过日本2017年的水平,但人均GDP却只有日本2017年人均GDP的1/3。因此,居民节能应是“十四五”期间节能工作的重点领域之一,需积极促进居民节能,倡导绿色消费和低碳生活。Residential energy consumption(REC)in China has increased gradually to 13%of the national energy consumption,driven by rapid economic development,accelerated urbanization,and continuously improvement in living conditions.In this paper,the authors analyzes and studies the current trends,structure and future development trend of REC in China.The results indicate that there is still large room for REC growth in China during the 14th Five Year period from 2021 to 2025.The REC per capita is expected to rise from 415.6 kgce in 2017 to 585 kgce in 2025,with an annual growth rate of about 4%.In the meantime,there are differences in REC per capita among different climate zones,and between urban and rural households.The disposable income per capita of urban residents is 2~3 times that of rural residents,but the average REC per capita of rural residents has exceeded that of urban residents for the first time in 2017,which has a greater energy conservation potential in rural households.By 2025,REC per capita in China could exceed Japan’s REC per capita,but China’s current GDP per capita is only 1/3 of that of Japan in 2017,suggesting significant potential for continued growth.Therefore,residential energy conservation should be one of the key areas of energy conservation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.Efforts should be made to promote the residential energy conservation,and advocate green consumption and low-carbon life.

关 键 词：居民能源消费 生活能源 居民节能 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]