复合系统最优化下工业水资源多驱动仿真调控策略研究  

Multiple Driving Simulation Control Strategies for Industrial Water Resources Under Complex System Optimization

作　　者：张峰 王晗 薛惠锋[2] ZHANG Feng;WANG Han;XUE Hui-feng(School of Management,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255012;China Academy of Aerospace System Scientific and Engineering,Beijing 100048)

机构地区：[1]山东理工大学管理学院,山东淄博255012 [2]中国航天系统科学与工程研究院,北京100048

出　　处：《软科学》2021年第1期138-144,共7页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71904108、U1501253);中央分成水资源费项目(2016H22SK041)。

摘　　要：采用系统动力学仿真技术构建融合工业用水关联要素在内的"经济-资源-环境-社会"复合系统仿真模型,在对其参数设定以及模型仿真效果一致性检验的基础上,分别设计原始驱动型、产业结构调控型、城镇化建设调控型、污染治理驱动调控型和综合驱动调控型等差异性工业用水驱动调控仿真情景,按照其历史数据进行样本训练及2018~2022年趋势预判。趋势检验结果表明:原始驱动型调控情景下的经济增长效益相对稳定,但其资源效益、环境效益并不乐观;而产业结构调控型、城镇化建设调控型和污染治理驱动调控型情景所取得的资源或者环境等局部效益虽然相对较好,但其他效益难以达到理想效果。同比之下,综合驱动调控型设计下的经济效益虽然略低于产业结构调控型,但其引发的复合系统综合效益更为显著。The Economic-Resource-Environment-Social composite system simulation model based on industrial water related elements is constructed by system dynamics simulation, and its parameters are set and the validity is verified. Furthermore, the differential industrial water-driven regulation simulation scenarios are designed, including original-driven, industrial structure regulation, urbanization regulation, pollution control-driven regulation and comprehensive drive regulation. Different simulation scenarios are sampled and trended from 2018 to 2022. Results show that, the economic growth benefit under the original-driven regulation scenario is stable, but its resource and environmental benefits are weaker. The local benefits such as resources or environment obtained by the industrial structure regulation, the urbanization regulation, and the pollution control-driven regulation are better, but other benefits are difficult to achieve the desired effect. Although the economic benefit under the comprehensive drive regulation design is slightly lower than the industrial structure regulation, the comprehensive benefits of the composite system caused by it are more significant.

关 键 词：工业用水 系统优化 调控策略 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]