蔡英文执政以来的日台关系分析:双重轨迹、二级突破的特征与前景监测  

Analysis of Japan-Taiwan Relations under Tsai Ing-wen Administration: Features of Dual Tracks and “Two-Level Breakthrough” as well as Future Development Monitoring

作　　者：高兰[1] Gao Lan(the Center for Japanese Studies,Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学日本研究中心

出　　处：《台海研究》2020年第4期96-108,共13页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

基　　金：2017年福建省社会科学研究基地重大项目《菲律宾在中国黄岩岛水域所谓传统捕鱼权的研究》(编号:2016JDZ2017);上海市教育委员会2020高校智库内涵建设计划项目《美日智库关于中国海洋问题的研判及影响》(编号:2020宣传6-83)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：自2016年蔡英文执政以来,日台关系呈现出明暗双重轨迹发展的趋向,并出现"从负到零到正"二级突破的潜在危险。即,从明线上来看,出现了更改派驻机构名称的"正名"活动,人员交流进行"提档"等表象。从暗线上来看,出现了立法之探试、日台加强安全问题合作的"突围"等征象。由于明线和暗线活动相互交织,日台之间出现了试图"从负到零到正"的二级突破动向。2020年5月20日,蔡英文开始其第二任期以来,呼吁继续推动日台关系的"升温"。但是,从本质上来看,基于历史因素和现实因素的制约,日本对台湾的政策一直保持1972年"中日联合声明"等4个政治文件的底线,日台关系发展的象征性意义多于实际意义。当然,基于日台关系中的明线和暗线发展的复合作用,今后必须高度关注日台关系出现"从负到零到正"的二级突破,警惕日台关系的渐进性、实质性提升。Since Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016, the relations between Taiwan and Japan have shown the development trend of dual tracks, and there has emerged the potential danger of a two-level breakthrough which moves "from negative to zero and then to positive". That is to say, in the overt track, there have been phenomena such as "name verification" activities to change the name of the stationed institutions and "file pickup" to exchange personnel. In the covert track, there are certain signs such as tentatively tempering with legislation as well as the breakthrough in the strengthening of Japan-Taiwan security cooperation. Due to the interweaving of activities in the overt and covert tracks, there has been a tendency of two-level breakthrough which moves "from negative to zero and then to positive" between Japan and Taiwan. Since the beginning of her second term on May 20th, 2020, Tsai Ing-wen has called for the "warm-up" of Japan-Taiwan relations. However, due to historical and practical constraints, Japan’s policy towards Taiwan in its essence has always held the bottom line of the four political documents, including the 1972 "China-Japan Joint Statement". The development of Japan-Taiwan relations is more symbolic than actual. Of course, due to the combined effect of the overt and covert tracks in the development of Japan-Taiwan relations, we must pay close attention to the two-level breakthrough which moves "from negative to zero and then to positive" in Japan-Taiwan relations, and be wary of gradual and substantial development of Japan-Taiwan relations.

关 键 词：日台关系 双重轨迹 二级突破 “一中原则” 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学]