中国31个省区市财政支农对农业经济增长的空间效应和门槛特征研究  

The Spatial Effect and Threshold Characteristics of Fiscal Expenditurefor Supporting Agriculture in China's 31 Provinces

作　　者：向洁[1] 胡青江 闫海龙 Xiang Jie;Hu Qingjiang;Yan Hailong(Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;Development and Reform Commission of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学经济与管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [3]新疆维吾尔自治区发展和改革委员会经济研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《新疆财经》2021年第1期17-30,共14页Finance & Economics of Xinjiang

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“丝绸之路经济带背景下中国与中亚国家跨境粮食产能合作模式与合作机制研究”(18JY147);新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金一般项目“基于乡村地域功能演化视角下的新疆乡村发展类型及振兴策略研究”(18BJL025)。

摘　　要：财政支农是实现农业经济增长的关键要素,揭示两者之间的作用规律有助于更好地引导生产要素在产业间和区域间的集聚与扩散,进而促进农业发展。本文基于2007年—2018年我国31个省际面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型和门槛回归模型分析财政支农对农业经济增长的影响。研究发现:财政支农存在显著的空间异质性和依赖性;财政支农对本区域农业经济增长有显著的促进作用,但对相邻区域农业经济增长却存在明显的负向溢出效应;不同控制变量对农业经济增长的溢出效应有所差异。此外,财政支农对农业经济增长还存在门槛效应,且随着财政支农力度的增大,对农业经济增长的边际贡献呈现加速提升效应。为此,本文建议应因地制宜实施差异化财政支农政策;在制定政策时应具有灵活性,并可进行动态调整;科学调配和优化财政支农力度与稳定增长机制,实现财政支农与农业经济增长的良性互动。Fiscal expenditure for supporting agriculture is the key factor to realize the economic growth of agriculture,revealing the law of action between the two is conducive to better guide the agglomeration and diffusion of production factors between industries and regions,and then promote the development of agriculture.Based on the data of 31 inter-provincial panels in China from 2007 to 2018,this paper uses the Spatial Dubin Model and the threshold regression model to analyze the impact of fiscal expenditure for supporting Agriculture.It is found that fiscal expenditure for supporting agriculture has significant spatial heterogeneity and dependence;fiscal expenditure for supporting agriculture has a significant role in promoting agricultural economic growth in this region,but has a significant negative spillover effect on agricultural economic growth in adjacent regions;different control variables have different spillover effects on agricultural economic growth.In addition,fiscal expenditure for supporting agriculture has a threshold effect on agricultural economic growth,and with the increase of financial support for agriculture,the marginal contribution to agricultural economic growth shows an accelerating effect.Finally,the paper puts forward the corresponding policy enlightenment from the aspects of carrying out differentiated financial support policy according to local conditions,scientific allocation and optimization of financial support policy and stabilizing growth mechanism.

关 键 词：农业高质量发展 财政支农 农业经济增长 空间效应 门槛特征 乡村振兴战略 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学]