基于疫情影响的油田产量组合预测模型及其应用  

Combined prediction model of oilfield production based on the epidemic influence and its application

作　　者：赵云飞[1] 方艳君[1] 孙洪国[1] 桂东旭[1] 张继风[1] 乔书江[1] 赵玉双[1] ZHAO Yunfei;FANG Yanjun;SUN Hongguo;GUI Dongxu;ZHANG Jifeng;QIAO Shujiang;ZHAO Yushuang(Exploration and Development Research Institute of Daqing Oilfield Co Ltd, Daqing 163712, China)

机构地区：[1]大庆油田有限责任公司勘探开发研究院,黑龙江大庆163712

出　　处：《大庆石油地质与开发》2021年第1期55-60,共6页Petroleum Geology & Oilfield Development in Daqing

基　　金：中国石油天然气集团公司“十三五”科技开发项目“高/特高含水油田改善水驱效果关键技术”(2019B-1209)。

摘　　要：突如其来的新冠肺炎给油田生产运行带来了极大困难,给油田产量造成了很大的不确定性,因此客观科学量化疫情对油田产量的影响及科学制定疫情应对举措显得尤为重要。在系统分析油田产量客观变化规律的基础上,及时跟踪疫情期间的产量变化情况,按照未措施、措施、新井和三采新投注产量4部分油田产量构成,建立了疫情防控期、生产恢复期产量影响的不确定性快速预测模型。根据矿场实际和专家经验,确定了生产时率、措施实施率、新井完成率、三采新投注区块延迟率等主要影响因素,并量化各因素的影响程度,形成分解合成、协调优化的组合产量预测方法。应用此模型预测了疫情对某油田产量的影响程度,并给出了应对举措,以最大限度降低油田产量风险。The suddenly emerged COVID-19 has brought great difficulties to the oilfield production and operation,resulting in great uncertainty for the oilfield production.It is of great significance to objectively and scientifically quantify the impact of the epidemic situation on the oilfield production and formulate scientific response measures.On the basis of systematic analysis of the objective change laws of the oilfield production and the production change tracked timely during the epidemic period,the production composition was classified into four parts including unstimulated production,stimulated production,new well production and newly injected tertiary-recovery production,the uncertain and rapid prediction model of production impact was established during epidemic prevention-control and production recovery periods.According to the field practice and expert experience,the main influencing factors were determined such as production time rate,measure stimulated rate,new well completion rate and delay rate of the newly injected tertiary-recovery block.The influencing degree of each factor was quantified,and the combined production prediction method was developed based on decomposition synthesis and coordinated optimization.The model was applied to predict the influencing degree of the epidemic condition on oilfield production and the countermeasures were given so as to minimize the risk of oilfield production.

关 键 词：疫情分析 产量影响系数 组合预测模型 防控举措 

分 类 号：TE34[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]