国库暂付款、支出结构与地方财政预算执行进度  

Treasury Temporary Payments,Expenditure Structure and Progress of Local Fiscal Budget Implementation

作　　者：王振宇 司亚伟[1] 寇明风 WANG Zhenyu;SI Yawei;KOU Mingfeng(Liaoning University, 110036;Liaoning Provincial Research Institute of Fiscal Science, 110032)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院,110036 [2]辽宁大学地方财政研究院,110036 [3]辽宁省财政科学研究所,110032

出　　处：《财贸经济》2020年第11期5-19,共15页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：“国家特支计划”资助项目“我国地方财政可持续发展研究”;辽宁省社会科学基金资助项目“辽宁省地方政府隐性债务化解途径研究”(L19AJY001);辽宁省社科联2019年度重点委托项目“化解地方政府债务问题研究”(2019lslwtkt-005)。

摘　　要：基于近些年地方财政支出预算执行“慢”的现状,本文从“有没有钱”和“钱如何花”的角度出发,构建影响地方财政预算执行进度的逻辑分析框架,并选取我国31个省(市、自治区)2015—2018年的面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型,实证考察国库暂付款、财政预算支出结构与地方财政预算执行进度之间的关系。研究发现:(1)地方政府国库暂付款(当期和前一期)规模越大,财政预算执行进度相对越慢;(2)地方财政预算支出结构中刚性支付占比与财政预算执行进度存在倒“U”型关系;(3)人均GDP越高、人均可用财力和税收收入占一般公共预算收入比重越大的地区,财政预算执行进度相对较快,而中央税收返还和转移支付占预算支出比重较高的地区,政府财政预算执行进度相对较慢,且变量在实证检验中都通过了显著性检验。研究表明,改善地方财政预算执行进度需要因地制宜,在规范国库资金管理、落实全面绩效预算等方面发力提效。In view of the current“slow”implementation of local fiscal expenditure budgets in recent years,this paper builds a logical analysis framework that affects the implementation of local fiscal budgets from the perspectives of“whether one has enough money”and“how to expend”and uses a two-way fixed effect model to conduct empirical investigation into the relationship between the treasury temporary payments,the structure of fiscal budget expenditures and the implementation progress of local fiscal budgets based on the panel data of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in Chinese mainland from 2015 to 2018.The results are as follows:First,the larger the scale of local government treasury temporary payments in the current period and the previous period,the slower the implementation of the fiscal budgets;second,there is an inverse“U”relationship between the proportion of rigid payments in the structure of local fiscal budget expenditures and the implementation of fiscal budgets;third,the higher the per capita GDP and the larger the percentage of per capita available financial resources and tax revenue in the general public budget revenue,the faster the implementation of the fiscal budgets;in the regions where the central tax rebate and transfer payments account for a higher proportion of budget expenditures,the government's fiscal budget implementation is relatively slow,and all variables have passed the significance test.Studies have shown that accelerating the progress of local fiscal budget implementation requires adjusting measures in light of local conditions and making efforts to improve efficiency in terms of standardizing the management of treasury funds and implementing comprehensive performance budgets.

关 键 词：财政预算 国库暂付款 支出结构 刚性支出 

分 类 号：F812.2[经济管理—财政学]