控烟公共政策的潜在收益评估——基于烟草消费与公共健康视角  

Evaluation of Potential Benefits of Tobacco Control Policy:From the Perspective of Tobacco Consumption and Public Health

作　　者：行伟波[1] 田坤 XING Weibo;TIAN Kun(University of International Business and Economics, 100020)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,100020

出　　处：《财贸经济》2020年第11期51-66,共16页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国区域间市场整合研究:微观机制与外部效应”(71673044);国家自然科学基金重点项目“全球价值链视角下的国内区域分工与市场一体化研究”(71733003)。

摘　　要：在推进健康中国战略的背景下,探索烟草消费对公众健康的影响程度并实施有效的控烟等公共卫生政策具有重大意义。本文构建了消费者吸烟对健康影响的决策模型,并基于卷烟销售量、癌症发病人数等城市层面数据,利用实证模型评估烟草对健康的直接影响。结果显示,烟草消费对健康存在显著的负向影响。卷烟销售量每增加1%,肺癌死亡人数将增加0.247万人,新发肺癌人数将增加0.309万人,肿瘤科门急诊人数将增加8.322万人。本研究控制了空气污染的负向效应,使用工具变量缓解内生性问题,并进行了多项敏感性分析,但烟草的显著负向健康效应依然是稳健的。当前我国消费者吸烟行为每年造成的经济净损失增量超过1000亿元,因而实施控烟政策符合成本收益效率原则。It is significant to explore the impact of tobacco consumption on public health and implement public health policies such as tobacco control.This paper builds a theoretical model about the influence of consumers'smoking decisions on people's physical health,and builds an empirical model to verify the impact of tobacco on public health based on the data at the city level such as tobacco sales and cancer incidence.We find that tobacco sales have a significant negative impact on public health.Every 1%increase in cigarette sales will raise the number of lung cancer deaths by 2,470,the number of newly diagnosed lung cancer patients by 3,090,and the number of outpatient and emergency department visits by 83,220.This research has controlled the negative effect of air pollution,and used the instrumental variable to alleviate endogenous problems,and conducted sensitivity tests.The negative effect of tobacco sales on health is still robust.It is estimated in this paper that the annual increase of economic net loss caused by tobacco use is more than 100 billion yuan.Hence,the implementation of tobacco control policy is in line with the principle for greater cost-benefit efficiency.

关 键 词：烟草销售 公共健康 生命损失 

分 类 号：F812.0[经济管理—财政学]