家庭债务、信贷约束与实体经济  

Household Debt,Credit Constraints and Real Economy

作　　者：王君斌[1] 刘河北 WANG Junbin;LIU Hebei(Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, 611130;Guangxi University of Finance and Economics, 530003)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学财政税务学院,611130 [2]广西财经学院海上丝绸之路与广西区域发展研究院,530003

出　　处：《财贸经济》2020年第11期97-111,共15页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：西南财经大学中央高校基本科研业务“减税降费的经济效应及其优化设计研究:企业所得税视角”(JBK2002015)。

摘　　要：本文拟从经济周期角度探讨中国快速上升的家庭债务与实体经济(GDP、消费、投资、就业)相关联的经济学机理。基于2007—2018年的统计数据发现:家庭债务的波动性较小;家庭债务与实体经济弱正相关。之后,构建了一个含有异质性家庭、GHH效用函数和存在信贷约束的DSGE模型,数值模拟发现:在技术冲击下,模型能够较好地拟合中国家庭债务与实体经济的周期性特征。其中家庭的就业效应和信贷约束下的财富效应是影响家庭债务与实体经济的周期性特征的主要机制。当技术冲击对非李嘉图家庭形成的总效应为正时,非李嘉图家庭将同时增加消费和住房购买。借助基准模型模拟信贷紧缩对家庭债务和实体经济的影响,发现信贷紧缩的门槛值在[0.5,0.55]中,一旦低于门槛值,信贷紧缩将改变家庭债务与实体经济的周期性特征。这意味着适度的家庭债务有利于实体经济发展,而通过信贷紧缩“去杠杆化”则存在使经济下行风险增大的可能。实施因城施策的信贷政策有利于稳增长和稳就业。From the perspective of business cycle,we study the possible internal economic mechanisms concerning China's rapidly rising household debt and the real economy.The real economy discussed in this paper covers GDP,consumption,investment and employment.Based on the statistics from 2007 to 2018,we find that compared with the fluctuation of GDP,the fluctuation of household debt is relatively small,and there is a weak positive correlation between household debt and real economy.We then build a DSGE model with heterogeneous households,GHH utility functions and credit constraints.Numerical simulation shows that the model well manifests the cyclical characteristics of Chinese household debt and real economy under the impact of technology.The household's employment effect and wealth effect under credit constraints are the main mechanisms that affect the cyclical characteristics of household debt and real economy.When the aggregate effect of technology shocks on non-Ricardian household formation is positive,non-Ricardian households will increase both consumption and housing purchases.Finally,the impact of credit crunch on household debt and real economy is simulated in the benchmark model,and the threshold value of credit crunch is found to be in the range of[0.5,0.55].Once below the threshold value,the credit crunch will change the cyclical characteristics of household debt and real economy,which indicates that a modest household debt will be helpful for the real economy.Deleveraging through credit crunch may increase the economic downside risk,which means that appropriate credit policies are conducive to the development of the real economy.The implementation of city-specific credit policies is conducive to steady growth and stable employment.

关 键 词：家庭债务 信贷约束 实体经济 就业效应 财富效应 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]