“修昔底德陷阱”的国内政治逻辑  

The Domestic Logic of“Thucydides Trap”

作　　者：莫盛凯 Mo Shengkai(Department of International Politics,University of International Relations)

机构地区：[1]国际关系学院国际政治系,北京100091

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2020年第12期28-51,156,157,共26页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“美国欧亚大陆战略调整与共建‘一带一路’面临的地缘风险挑战研究”(项目批准号:20CGJ038)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：近年来,伯罗奔尼撒战争因“修昔底德陷阱”概念的提出而再度风靡。当前关于“修昔底德陷阱”的讨论往往简化了从和平到战争的过程,尤其是缺乏足够的古典史依据。从和平到战争的过程通常是危机发生和发展的过程,危机视角下的过程机制研究是有关“修昔底德陷阱”讨论的主要薄弱环节,现有强调“恐惧”和“同盟”的主流解释机制都存在着一些无法回避的逻辑或史实问题。在危机研究的视角下,对于从希波战争后的雅典复兴到伯罗奔尼撒战争爆发之间的“五十年危机”时期,大致可以区分为危机背景性因素形成、偶然性危机、派生性危机、敌意合理化危机和边缘政策危机五个阶段。雅典在希波战争中的崛起催生了雅典和斯巴达城邦内部强硬派的先后形成。伊庇丹努事件作为偶然性危机重新激活了被《三十年和约》暂时冻结的两国国内强硬派与温和派的角力,以致危机一再升级导致大战爆发。在危机的各个阶段,雅典和斯巴达内部强硬派与温和派在城邦内外政治互动过程中的势力消长是影响各个时期两强关系走向的主要因素。危机下的国内政治动能是“修昔底德陷阱”过程机制研究的理论增长点。The Peloponnesian War,as an analytical tool,is once again popular in the name of“Thucydides trap”.The current discussion of“Thucydides trap”ignores or simplifies the process from peace to war from a theoretical point of view,and lacks the basic Classics knowledge from the historical point of view.The process from peace to war is just the process of a crisis from occurrence to development.To sum up,the research on process mechanism from the perspective of crisis is its main weakness.There are some unavoidable problems in logic or historical facts in the mainstream interpretation mechanism which emphasizes“fear”or“alliance”.From the perspective of crisis studies,Thucydides'“fifty year narrative”(pentekontaetia)from the renaissance of Athens after the Greek-Persian war to the outbreak of the Peloponnesian War can be roughly divided into five stages,i.e.,the background stage(481-436 B.C.),the accidental crisis stage(436-435 B.C.),the spinoff crisis stage(435-433 B.C.),the justification of hostility stage(433-432 B.C.),and the brinkmanship crisis stage(432-431 B.C.).The rise of Athens in the Greek-Persian War gave birth to the formation of hardliners in both Athens and Sparta successively,and in their interaction led to the outbreak of the first Peloponnesian War.As an accidental crisis,the Epidamnus incident reactivated the rivalry between hardliners and moderates within the two city-states,which were temporarily frozen by the“30-year peace treaty”,and finally leading to the outbreak of the Peloponnesian war step by step.In each stage of the crisis,the rise and fall of the hardliners versus moderates,their domestic counterpart,in domestic political struggle in both Athens and Sparta,is the main factor that decides war or peace between the two powers.The domestic political dynamic under the crisis is the theoretical growth point on the research of“Thucydides trap”.

关 键 词：“修昔底德陷阱” 伯罗奔尼撒战争 国际危机 国内政治动能 “五十年危机” 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]