昆嵛山区欲植赤松林地赤枯病病基指数预测  

Prediction Disease Based Index of Needle Blight Disease(Pestalotiopsis funerea)in Pinus densiflora Pure Forest in Kunyushan Mountains

作　　者：胡瑞瑞 梁军[1,3] 谢宪 车吉明 苑晓雯 张英军 张星耀 Hu Ruirui;Liang Jun;Xie Xian;Che Jiming;Yuan Xiaowen;Zhang Yingjun;Zhang Xingyao(Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Institute of Forest Ecological Environment and Protection,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091;Tianjin Academy of Institute of plant Protection,Tianjin 300380;Kunyushan Forest Ecosystem Research Station,Yantai 264100)

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所,国家林业和草原局森林保护学重点实验室,北京100091 [2]天津市植物保护研究所,天津300380 [3]昆嵛山森林生态系统定位研究站,烟台264100

出　　处：《林业科学》2020年第12期83-90,共8页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFD0600104);国家自然科学基金面上项目(31270682);山东昆嵛山森林生态系统国家定位观测研究站运行补助(2019132127)。

摘　　要：【目的】通过构建赤松赤枯病病基指数立地因子评价体系,定量预测欲植林地潜在遭受赤枯病原菌侵染程度的等级,以避免在赤枯病潜在严重危害的林地上种植赤松。【方法】基于赤松赤枯病病基指数曲线群图,查找每块样地的病基指数。通过相关性分析筛选关键立地因子,运用数量化理论Ⅰ分别建立赤松赤枯病病基指数与全部立地因子和关键立地因子的关系方程,并对方程模型做出评价。【结果】1)相关性分析表明,海拔、土壤质地和腐殖质层厚度对病基指数具有极显著的影响(P<0.01),坡向对病基指数具有显著影响(P<0.05),且对病基指数的贡献大小顺序是坡向<土壤质地<海拔<腐殖质层厚度。2)全部立地因子和关键立地因子与病基指数的多元线性回归模型在统计上均达到极显著水平(P<0.01),决定系数(R2)分别为0.7100和0.6780,说明模型的拟合效果较好,且可用4个关键立地因子代替全部立地因子作为方程自变量。3)对4个关键立地因子与赤松赤枯病病基指数的模型进行场外检验,表明平均预估误差(MPE)是8.73%,说明预估精度为91.27%以上,且TRE值较趋近于0,模型较可靠。【结论】赤松赤枯病病基指数立地因子评价体系可以定量预测欲植林地潜在遭受赤松赤枯病侵染的程度,能够为适地适树地栽植赤松林以及预防赤松赤枯病提供理论基础。【Objective】In order to avoid planting Pinus densiflora(Japanese red pine,JRP)in the woodland which is potentially seriously damaged by JRP blight(Pestalotiopsis funerea),the disease based index(DBI)-site factors evaluation system was established to quantitatively predict the degree of potential pathogen infection of JRP needle blight in the forest land to be planted.【Method】The disease based index of each sample plot was found based on the DBI curve group graph of JRP needle blight.Through correlation analysis,the key site factors were selected,the relationship equations between DBI-all site factors and DBI-key site factors of JRP needle blight were established by using the quantificative theory I.【Result】1)Correlation analysis showed that elevation,soil texture and humus depth had an extremely significant influence on disease based index(P<0.01),slope aspect had significant influence on disease based index(P<0.05),and the order of contribution to disease based index was slope aspect<soil texture<elevation<humus depth.2)The multiple linear regression model of all site factors,key site factors and disease based index reached the extremely significant level statistically(P<0.01),and the determination coefficient(R2)was 0.7100 and 0.6780,respectively,indicating that the model had a good fitting effect,and 4 key site factors could be used to replace all site factors as the independent variables of the equation.3)A field test on model(2)(DBI-key site factors)showed that the average estimation error(MPE)was 8.73%,indicating that the estimation accuracy is above 91.27%.the TRE value is close to 0,thus the model is reliable.【Conclusion】Disease based index-site factors evaluation system can quantitatively predict potential infection of JRP needle blight,which can provide theoretical basis for optimum planting and prevention of JRP needle blight.

关 键 词：赤松 赤松赤枯病 病基指数 纯林 昆嵛山 

分 类 号：S718[农业科学—林学]