城市群战略能否缩小城乡收入差距?——基于PSM-DID的实证检验  

Can the Urban Agglomeration Strategy Narrow the Urban-rural Income Gap?Empirical Test Based on PSM-DID

作　　者：刘军 Liu Jun(School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872

出　　处：《新疆农垦经济》2020年第11期41-54,共14页Xinjiang State Farms Economy

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目(项目编号:17XNL006)。

摘　　要：城市群正在成为新型城镇化的主体形态,它有利于城乡融合、挖掘未来市场潜力和促进乡村产业发展,因而对于打造中国未来经济新动能具有重要现实意义。文章基于2004-2018年长江经济带110个城市,主要运用PSM-DID来探讨城市群战略对城乡收入差距的影响传导路径。结果表明:(1)城市群战略能够缩小城乡收入差距;(2)模型在替换方法、替代变量等情况下仍然具有稳健性,并通过反事实检验排除了同一时期其他政策干扰的可能性,地区安慰剂检验证明了政策效果不是随机因素造成的;(3)城市群战略具有区域异质性,在长三角城市群、长江中游城市群表现为政策红利,而在成渝城市群却出现了政策陷阱;(4)城市群战略主要通过促进经济增长和扩大对外开放程度来达到减贫效应,但也存在会造成拥挤效应和寻租行为等引起的政策陷阱,致使概念炒作而失败。根据研究结论,针对性提出持续推动经济增长、扩大对外开放程度、合理控制城市规模和划清政府与市场的界限等政策建议。Urban agglomeration is becoming the main form of new urbanization,which is conducive to the integration of urban andrural areas,tapping the future market potential and promoting rural industry development,so it is of great practical significance forbuilding new dynamic energy of China′s future economy.Based on 110 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2004 to2018,this paper mainly uses PSM-DID to discuss the transmission path of the influence of urban agglomeration strategy on urban-rural income gap.The results show that:(1)urban agglomeration strategy can narrow the income gap between urban and rural ar-eas;(2)the model is still robust in the case of substitution methods and substitution variables,and the possibility of interferencefrom other policies in the same period is ruled out by counterfactual test.The regional placebo test proves that the policy effect isnot caused by random factors;(3)The urban agglomeration strategy has regional heterogeneity,showing policy dividends in theYangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration,while there are policytraps in Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration;(4)Urban agglomeration strategy mainly achieves poverty reduction effect bypromoting economic growth and opening up to the outside world,but there are also policy traps caused by crowding effect and rent-seeking behavior,which leads to conceptual hype and failure.This paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as promotingeconomic growth continuously,expanding the degree of opening up to the outside world,controlling the city scale reasonably anddrawing a clear line between the government and the market.

关 键 词：新型城镇化建设 城市群战略 城乡收入差距 PSM-DID 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济] F224F124.7