基于量化不确定性的储量升级动用潜力评价方法  

A method for evaluating the potential of reserve upgrading based on quantitative uncertainty

作　　者：肖玉茹[1] 黄学斌[1] 李姝[1] 刘丽琼[1] 李军[1] XIAO Yuru;HUANG Xuebin;LI Shu;LIU Liqiong;LI Jun(SINOPEC Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《石油实验地质》2021年第1期169-175,共7页Petroleum Geology & Experiment

基　　金：中国石化科技部项目“石油控制储量升级评价技术及潜力研究”(P18055-4)资助。

摘　　要：未升级、动用储量多数为低品位储量,如何评价储量升级动用潜力是迫切需要解决的问题。低品位储量存在地质条件复杂、储层非均质性强、数据资料有限和阶段认识局限等不确定性,常规评价方法效果不佳。为此,建立了一套基于量化不确定性的储量升级动用潜力评价方法,实现了3个方面的改进:一是改变了以往国内储量采用确定性法估算的唯一值,储量用范围值来描述不确定性,并提出了用确定性程度来定量表征储量的风险;二是建立了储量升级动用潜力评价指标体系、关键参数不确定性的评价方法及评价流程;三是由以往重视储量规模向储量价值转变,利用风险—价值评估技术,建立了“确定性程度、单位储量/资源量价值和储量/资源量”的三因素潜力评价模型,潜力区块划分为四类,即Ⅰ类低风险高价值、Ⅱ类低风险低价值、Ⅲ类高风险高价值和IV类高风险低价值,从而实现储量—产量—价值评估三统一的潜力评价平台。通过应用实例表明,利用上述方法可以有效地实现储量升级动用潜力评价和目标优选,筛选出的升级动用潜力区块与后续的升级动用效果基本吻合,验证了上述方法的可靠性与合理性。Most of the initial inplace and undeveloped OOIP are lowgrade reserves,and how to evaluate their potential is an urgent problem.There are many uncertainties in lowgrade reserves,such as complex geological conditions,strong reservoir heterogeneity,limited data and limited geological knowledge.The reliability of the conventional evaluation method is poor.Therefore,a series of systematic evaluation methods for initial inplace and undeveloped OOIP on the basis of quantitative uncertainty was proposed,which mainly focused on three improvements.Firstly,the range value was used to describe the uncertainty of OOIP,which changed the unique value estimated by the certainty method in the past.The degree of certainty was proposed to quantitatively characterize the risk of reserves.Secondly,the evaluation index system,the evaluation method and the evaluation process of uncertainty of the key parameters were established.Thirdly,the new method was changed from the previous emphasis on reserve scale to reserve value,established a threefactor model of“the degree of certainty-unit reserves/resources value and the scale of reserves/resources”by applying riskvalue assessment technology.Potential blocks were divided into four categories,namely typeⅠwith low risk and high value,typeⅡwith low risk and low value,typeⅢwith high risk and high value,and typeⅣwith high risk and low value.In this way,a potential evaluation platform combining reserves,production and value evaluation was proposed.The application of the method showed that it can effectively evaluate the reserve upgrading and development potential and optimize the blocks,and the selected blocks are basically consistent with the subsequent upgrading and development of potential blocks,which verified the reliability and rationality of the method.

关 键 词：区块优选 潜力评价指标体系 储量价值评估 定量方法 储量计算 

分 类 号：TE155[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]