1960-2018年安康市气温变化与太阳黑子活动的相关性  

Correlation between sunspot activity and annual mean temperature change in Ankang City from 1960 to 2018

作　　者：龚兰兰 王长燕[1,2] 郁耀闯[1,2] 韩景卫[1,2] GONG Lan-lan;WANG Chang-yan;YU Yao-chuang;HAN Jing-wei(College of Geography and Environment, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji 721013, Shaanxi, China;Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulation, Baoji 721013, Shaanxi, China)

机构地区：[1]宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院,陕西宝鸡721013 [2]陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室,陕西宝鸡721013

出　　处：《宝鸡文理学院学报（自然科学版）》2020年第4期61-66,共6页Journal of Baoji University of Arts and Sciences(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41371497,41601016);陕西省教育厅重点实验室项目(05JS40);陕西省社会科学界联合会(2019Z007);中国科学院气溶胶化学与物理重点实验室项目(KLACP1904);宝鸡市科技局项目(2018JH-13,KXJCZX-201808);宝鸡市社科项目(BJSKZX-201845);宝鸡文理学院重点项目(ZK2017039,ZK2017040,ZK2017013)。

摘　　要：目的研究安康市1960-2018年气温变化特征及其与太阳黑子活动的关系,为认识该区气候变化规律提供参考依据。方法采用一元线性回归分析、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、Morlet小波分析及交叉小波变换等方法进行分析讨论。结果安康市近60 a来年平均气温整体呈上升趋势,增温幅度大约为0.13℃/(10 a),并具有显著的28 a,39 a和66 a变化周期,其中,66 a周期是太阳活动22 a变化周期的3倍,该周期长度接近于太阳黑子活动的50.7 a周期。1974-2012年该市的气温变化滞后于太阳黑子活动约1/4个周期。结论安康市近60 a来年平均气温的变化周期可能与太阳活动存在着某种关联。Purposes—To explore the characteristics of temperature change in Ankang City,Shaanxi,China,and the relationships between sunspot activity and the characteristics of temperature change in the region from 1960 to 2018.Methods—The methods of unitary linear regression analysis,Mann-Kendall non-parametric test,Morlet wavelet analysis,and cross wavelet transform were used to analyse and discuss.Result—In the past 60 years,the annual temperature in Ankang City showed a general increasing trend with an increase of 0.13℃/(10 a).There existed obviously periodic changes of 28 a,39 a and 66 a,and 66 a period is 3 times of 22 a solar activity cycle,and the cycle length was close to the 50.7 a sunspot activity cycle.The annual temperature of Ankang City from 1974 to 2012 lags behind the sunspot activity about a quarter of a cycle.Conclusion—The variation cycle of annual average temperature in Ankang City in recent 60 years may be related to solar activity.

关 键 词：太阳黑子 全球变化 小波分析 周期性 安康市 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]