西北太平洋热带气旋频数及生成位置的气候变化研究进展  

Research progress on climate changes in frequency and genesis location of western North Pacific tropical cyclone

作　　者：吴泽铭 张冬娜 胡春迪 杨崧 WU Zeming;ZHANG Dongna;HU Chundi;YANG Song(School of Atmospheric Sciences/Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082, China;Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System (Sun Yat-sen University), Ministry of Education, Zhuhai 519082, China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学大气科学学院/广东省气候变化与自然灾害研究重点实验室,广东珠海519082 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),广东珠海519082 [3]热带大气-海洋系统科学教育部重点实验室,广东珠海519082

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2020年第4期1-10,共10页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41975077,41705050);广东省气候变化与自然灾害研究重点实验室项目(2020B1212060025)。

摘　　要：自20世纪70年代末期以来,西北太平洋的热带气旋在全球变暖的背景下主要发生了两种宏观的气候变化:一个是热带气旋生成频数呈现年代际减少,尤其是在东南部海域;另一个则是其生成与活动位置等总体特征有向西北偏移的趋势。本文对这两个方面的研究进展进行了概述。近些年的研究表明,垂直风切变的增强可能是夏秋季热带气旋频数减少的最主要原因,这与太平洋-印度洋海面温度变化导致的大尺度环境变化有密切联系。同样有研究认为北大西洋海面温度的多年代际振荡对近期西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的减少也非常重要。但西北太平洋西部强热带气旋的频数呈现出增加的趋势,这可能与东亚近海海面温度的显著升高有关,尽管这种变化是否可信仍有争议。近20年来,西北太平洋热带气旋活动普遍出现西北移倾向,包括生成位置和路径位置,这种变化可能受到了ENSO变异及20世纪90年代末期太平洋气候突变的调控。同时,热带环流的极向扩张又导致了热带气旋的有利环境向北扩张,因此西北太平洋热带气旋活动也出现极向迁移的趋势。Since the late 1970s,there have been two mainly macroscopic climate changes in tropical cyclone(TC)over the western North Pacific(WNP)under global warming.One is the decadal decrease in the TC frequency,especially over the southeastern part of WNP,and the other is the trend of northwestward migration in TC genesis and activity location.This article summarizes the research progress on these two aspects as follows.Recent studies show the enhancement of vertical wind shear may be the main reason for the decrease of TC frequency in summer and autumn,which is closely linked to the large-scale environmental changes induced by Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies.Some studies show the multi-decadal oscillation of North Atlantic SST is also important to the decrease of TC frequency in WNP.However,the frequency of intense TC is increasing over the western part of WNP,which is possibly related to the regional warming in the coastal waters of East Asia,though such change is still in debate.During the recent two decades,WNP TC activities are observed to shift westward,including the genesis location and track,which is probably controlled by the ENSO shift and the late-1990s Pacific climate shift.Besides,the northward expansion of tropical circulations induces TC favorable environment to shift northward,contributing to the poleward migration of WNP TC activities.

关 键 词：热带气旋 频数 生成位置 气候变化 西北太平洋 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P457.8