东部型和中部型厄尔尼诺事件对山东夏季降水的不同影响  

Different influence of eastern and central Pacific El Nino events on summer precipitation in Shandong

作　　者：褚颖佳 郭飞燕 尹承美[1] 高帆[1] 李瑞[1] CHU Yingjia;GUO Feiyan;YIN Chengmei;GAO Fan;LI Rui(Jinan Meteorology Bureau, Jinan 250102, China;Qingdao Meteorology Bureau, Qingdao 266003, China)

机构地区：[1]济南市气象局,山东济南250102 [2]青岛市气象局,山东青岛266003

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2020年第4期97-104,共8页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-063);济南市科技局社会民生重大专项(201704137);山东省气象局重点科研项目(2016sdqxz05);淮河流域气象开放基金项目(HRM201601);山东省气象局预报员专项(SDYBY2017-07)。

摘　　要：利用1951—2017年NOAA月平均海面温度、NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料以及中国160站月降水观测资料,通过分类合成分析方法研究了东部型(eastern Pacific,EP)和中部型(central Pacific,CP)厄尔尼诺(El Nino)事件当年及次年对山东夏季降水年际变化的影响。结果表明,两类El Nino发生年,山东夏季降水均较常年显著偏少,但EP El Nino对山东夏季降水的影响强度和范围略弱于CP El Nino:EP El Nino发生年夏季,仅鲁西北部分地区以及胶州湾附近降水较常年显著偏少,而CP El Nino当年夏季山东全区降水较常年显著偏少。EP El Nino和CP El Nino次年对山东夏季降水异常的影响呈反位相,且影响大值区空间位置也完全相反:EP El Nino次年夏季山东东部尤其是半岛地区降水较常年异常偏少(青岛地区最为突出),而CP El Nino次年夏季山东中部和北部尤其是西北部地区降水较常年异常偏多。EP El Nino当年和次年夏季、CP El Nino当年夏季500 hPa高度场异常分布形势不利于西北太平洋副热带高压的北上,850 hPa风场为偏北风和偏东风异常,山东水汽输送条件差,水汽无明显辐合,造成大部分地区降水偏少。CP El Nino次年夏季西北太平洋副热带高压偏强,位置偏西偏北,850 hPa显著西南风场异常,山东中西部水汽辐合明显,这些是降水偏多的重要原因。Based on the monthly mean sea surface temperature data from NOAA,NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,and monthly mean precipitation observation data of 160 stations in China from 1951 to 2017,the influence of eastern Pacific(EP)El Nino and central Pacific(CP)El Nino events in the developing years and the following years on the interannual variability of summer precipitation in Shandong is investigated using composite analysis method.The conclusions are as follows.In the developing years of the two types of El Nino events,the summer precipitation is both significantly less than that in the normal years,and the influence intensity and range of EP El Nino on the summer precipitation in Shandong are slightly weaker than those of CP El Nino.In the developing summer of EP El Nino,there is significantly less precipitation in partial areas of the northwest of Shandong and near the Jiaozhou Bay,while in the developing summer of CP El Nino,there is significantly less precipitation in the whole province.The influence of EP El Nino and CP El Nino in the following years on the summer precipitation anomaly in Shandong shows a feature of out-of-phase,and the spatial positions of high-value zones are exactly the opposite.In the following summer of EP El Nino,there is anomalously less precipitation than that in the normal years in the east of Shandong,especially in Shandong Peninsula(Qingdao area is the most prominent),while in the following summer of CP El Nino,there is anomalously more precipitation than that in the normal years in the central and northern Shandong,especially in the northwest of Shandong.In the developing and following summer of EP El Nino and the developing summer of CP El Nino,the distributions of geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa are not beneficial for the western North Pacific subtropical high to proceed northward,and there are northerly and easterly wind anomalies at 850 hPa,which is unfavorable for the water vapor transport to Shandong.Besides,there is no obvious water vapor convergence in Shandong.All those

关 键 词：东部型厄尔尼诺事件 中部型厄尔尼诺事件 夏季降水 

分 类 号：P47[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P462.4