基于Sobol敏感性分析的装备体系保障效能评估  

Equipment SoS support effectiveness evaluation based on Sobol sensitivity analysis

作　　者：潘星[1] 张振宇 张艳梅[3] 王冉冉 PAN Xing;ZHANG Zhenyu;ZHANG Yanmei;WANG Ranran(School of Reliability and Systems Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;System Engineering Research Institute,China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited,Beijing 100036,China;Beijing Institute of Electronic Engineering,Beijing 100854,China)

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院,北京100191 [2]中国船舶工业系统工程研究院,北京100036 [3]北京电子工程总体研究所,北京100854

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2021年第2期390-398,共9页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：装备预先研究共性技术;装备预研重点实验室基金(61420110302)资助课题。

摘　　要：现代化作战都趋向于体系与体系间的对抗,装备体系保障能力已经成为影响装备体系作战能力的关键。为了定量衡量装备体系保障的效果,需要对装备体系保障效能进行科学的量化评估。首先进行装备体系保障能力分析,得出装备体系保障能力指标。其次,基于Sobol敏感性分析方法,对装备体系可用度进行敏感性分析,得到装备体系保障能力指标的重要程度。然后,基于Sobol敏感性分析,综合采用幂指数法提出装备体系保障效能评估方法。最后,通过多智能体仿真方法对某装备体系保障效能进行仿真评估,验证了所提方法有效性。Modern warfare tends to the confront between system of systems(SoS),and the support capability of the equipment SoS has become the key to affect the combat capability of equipment SoS.In order to measure the effect of equipment system support quantitatively,it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of equipment SoS support scientifically.Firstly,the support capability of the equipment SoS is analyzed,and the effectiveness index of the equipment SoS is obtained.Secondly,based on the Sobol sensitivity analysis method,the availability of the equipment system is analyzed,and the importance of the support capability index of the equipment SoS is obtained.Thirdly,the effectiveness evaluation method of the equipment SoS support with the power index method based on Sobol sensitivity analysis is proposed.Finally,the multi-agent simulation method is used to evaluate the support effectiveness of an equipment SoS,and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.

关 键 词：装备体系保障 效能评估 体系可用度 Sobol敏感性分析 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]