中国流动人口长期居留意愿现状及影响因素分析  

Analysis of the Status Quo and Influencing Factors of Long-term Residence Intention of the Floating Population in China

作　　者：陈正 刘娜 CHEN Zheng;LIU Na(School of Statistics,Xi an University of Finance and Economics,Xi'an 710100,China)

机构地区：[1]西安财经大学统计学院,陕西西安710100

出　　处：《人口与社会》2021年第1期18-27,共10页Population and Society

摘　　要：根据2014-2018年国家卫健委流动人口动态监测数据,采用描述统计和二元Logistic回归模型对中国流动人口长期居留意愿的现状和影响因素进行分析。结果显示:2018年中国流动人口长期居留意愿较前几年有所减弱,仅有36.6%的流动人口愿意在流入地长期居留;户口性质、受教育程度、住房支出、收入、就业身份和流入地区域是流动人口长期居留意愿的显著影响因素,受教育程度越高、平均每月住房支出越多、平均月收入越高、年龄越大的流动人口越倾向于长期居留在流入地。依据分析结果提出完善流动人口管理的相关建议,即发展区域经济,提高对受教育程度高的流动人口的关注度,加快流动人口管理的规范化、信息化建设等。According to the dynamic monitoring data(from 2014 to 2018)of the floating population by the National Health Commission,and using descriptive statistics and Binary Logistic Regression Model,the paper analyzes the status quo and influencing factors of the floating population’s the long-term residence intention.The results show that,in 2018,the long-term residence intention of the floating population in China is lower than that in the previous years,and only 36.6%of the floating population is willing to stay in the inflow place for a long time.Household registration type,educational level,housing expenditure,income,employment status and inflow areas are the significant factors influencing the long-term residence intention of the floating population.The higher the education level,the higher the average monthly housing expenditure,the higher the average monthly income and the older the floating population is,the more likely they are to stay for a long time.According to the analysis results,some suggestions are put forward,such as perfecting the policy of floating population,developing regional economy,raising the attention to the floating population with high education level,and accelerating the standardization and informatization of floating population management.

关 键 词：流动人口 长期居留意愿 人口管理 人口政策 社会融合 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]