自贸区设立对区域产业结构升级的影响研究  

Research on the Influence of the Establishment of Free Trade Zone on the Upgrading of Regional Industrial Structure

作　　者：杨波[1] 任福耀 蔡宏波[2] YANG Bo;REN Fuyao;CAI Hongbo(School of Economics, Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics, Zhengzhou 450046, China;Business School, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

机构地区：[1]郑州航空工业管理学院经济学院,河南郑州450046 [2]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第1期60-69,共10页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(16AJL009);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71773007)。

摘　　要：自由贸易试验区是中国全面探索改革、实现二次开放的重大战略举措,发挥着对接全球价值链窗口的作用,是推动我国制造业融入全球生态系统的重要推手。本文以上海为例,采用合成控制法评估自贸区设立对区域产业结构的影响。研究发现:自贸区成立以后,真实上海的产业结构升级指数高于合成上海,且差距逐渐增大,自贸区设立有效推动了区域产业结构升级;安慰剂法和双重差分法的稳健性检验结果,证实了自贸区政策促进区域产业结构升级结论的可靠性;科技创新能力提升是自贸区促进区域产业结构升级的重要渠道。Free Trade Zone(FTZ)is a major strategic measure for China to comprehensively explore reform and realize the second opening up.It plays a role of docking with the global value chain window,and it is an important driver for China’s manufacturing industry to integrate into the global ecosystem.Taking Shanghai as an example,this paper uses the synthetic control method to evaluate the impact of the establishment of Free Trade Zone on the regional industrial structure.The conclusions are as follows:after the establishment of Free Trade Zone,the upgrading index of real Shanghai’s industrial structure is higher than that of synthetic Shanghai and the gap is gradually increasing.The establishment effectively promotes the regional industrial upgrading;The results of the robustness test of the placebo method and the double difference method confirm the reliability of the conclusion that Free Trade Zone policy promotes the regional industrial upgrading;The promotion of scientific and technological innovation ability is an important channel for the Free Trade Zone to promote regional industrial upgrading.

关 键 词：自贸区 产业结构升级 合成控制法 中介效应 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易] F121.3[经济管理—产业经济]