China’s Economic Growth and High-Quality Development:2020-2035  

中国经济增长与高质量发展:2020-2035

作　　者：Liu Wei Chen Yanbin 刘伟;陈彦斌(中国人民大学;中国人民大学经济学院;国家经济学教材建设重点研究基地)

机构地区：[1]Renmin University of China,Beijing,China [2]School of Economics,Renmin University of China [3]Key Research Base for National Economics Textbook Development

出　　处：《China Economist》2021年第1期2-17,共16页中国经济学人（英文版）

摘　　要：The time period between 2020 and 2035 is vital for China to achieve its second centennial goal.During this period,China must avoid the middle-income trap and achieve socialist modernization.To accomplish this goal,China must maintain a certain pace of economic growth and strive to double its real GDP per capita by 2035.However,by the current growth trajectory,China’s average economic growth rate is expected to stay at approximately 3.8%over the period between 2020-2035.This makes the GDP per capita growth target hard to achieve.Even when in a high-quality development stage,China should speed up economic growth while enhancing growth quality.Speed and quality are interdependent rather than contradictory with each other.To ramp up economic growth potentials,China must proceed with market-oriented reforms and shift economic growth drivers.To improve economic growth quality,household consumption should be increased to unleash China’s full potential,not only as the factory floor of the world but also one of world’s biggest markets,i.e.“dual circulations.”With appropriate policy response,China’s economy will be poised to achieve the goal of doubling real GDP per capita by 2035,marking a large stride in its economic aggregate and urban and rural household per capita incomes.2020~2035年是中国迈向第二个百年奋斗目标的关键时期,肩负着跨越中等收入陷阱与基本实现社会主义现代化等重要任务。因此,经济需要保持一定的增长速度,将到2035年人均实际GDP水平翻一番作为主要目标。不过,按照当前经济增长路径,预计2020~2035年经济增速均值为3.8%左右,难以完成这一任务。因此,中国在高质量发展阶段既要提高经济增长质量也要提高经济增速,要深刻认识到增速与质量两者之间并不矛盾,而是相互依存的。提高经济增速需要以市场化改革为抓手,推动经济增长动力转换,从而提升经济的潜在增长水平。提高经济增长质量需要构建以“世界工厂+世界市场”为重要支撑的双循环发展格局,切实提高居民消费。在恰当的政策应对下,中国经济完全有能力完成到2035年人均实际GDP水平翻一番的目标,推动经济总量和城乡居民人均收入迈上新的大台阶。

关 键 词：economic growth growth potentials high-quality development one of world’s biggest markets dual circulations 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]