基于VAR模型的跨境电商影响因素分析与发展策略  

On Affecting Factors and Development Strategies of Cross-border E-commerce Based on VAR Model

作　　者：朱敏[1] ZHU Min(Anhui Sanlian University,Hefei,Anhui,230000,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽三联学院财会学院,安徽合肥230000

出　　处：《武汉商学院学报》2020年第6期50-53,共4页Journal of Wuhan Business University

基　　金：安徽省人文社科重点项目《基于MFCA的餐饮废物减排决策研究》(项目编号:SK2019A0756);安徽省人文社科重点项目“政产学研金”《区块链融合生态圈协同创新机制研究》(项目编号:SK2019A0751);安徽三联学院校级人文社科重点项目《“互联网+”背景下女大学生创业胜任力研究》(项目编号:SKZD2018010)。

摘　　要：本文以最近2010年-2019年数据为基础,基于VAR模型的数据分析,探讨了不同指标对跨境电商的影响,阐述了贸易便利对跨境电商的主要作用机理,实现了变量间的协整检验。研究结果表明,关税水平,人口人数以及人均收入会对跨境电商产业产生积极影响,即人均收入上升时,会对跨境电商的贸易成交额产生显著效果,即成交额上涨。Based on the data from 2010 to 2019,the impact of different indicators on cross-border e-commerce are studied with VAR Model analysis. And the mechanism of trade facilitation affecting cross-border e-commerce is also expounded,the Cointegration test of variables is made. The results show that tariff level,population and per capita income have positive impacts on the cross-border e-commerce,i. e. the increase of per capita income has significant influence on the turnover of transnational e-commerce. The turnover increases too.

关 键 词：跨境电商 VAR模型 贸易便利 协整检验 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济] F752