家庭“加杠杆”背景下居民财富效应研究——来自甘肃省的证据  

The Effect of Household Financial Leverage on Residents Wealth——Evidence From Gansu Province

作　　者：王丽娟[1] WANG Li-juan

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行平凉市中心支行

出　　处：《农村金融研究》2020年第12期28-37,共10页Rural Finance Research

摘　　要：论文在传统分析财富效应持久收入和生命假说的理论框架下,通过对甘肃省居民资产负债情况进行梳理,特别是对住户部门杠杆率指标进行分析,在财富效应研究中创新性地引入杠杆率指标,运用甘肃省微观数据,选取人均消费支出、住户部门杠杆率、人均可支配收入、人均储蓄存款和人均住房资产等指标,采用VAR模型,分析“加杠杆”背景下家庭财富对消费作用的大小,为如何促进甘肃省居民消费提供事实依据。同时,通过研究居民家庭财富,也试图为甘肃资本市场和房地产市场的发展寻找一些有益的借鉴。研究结果表明,住户部门杠杆率、可支配收入、储蓄存款是影响甘肃省居民消费支出的主要因素,居民住房资产财富效应微弱,对于居民消费支出的影响较小。In the traditional theoretical framework of the permanent income and life hypothesis,this paper firstly combs the assets and liabilities of Gansu Province,especially analyzes the leverage ratio of household sector.Then by innovatively introducing the leverage ratio index in the wealth effect research,and selecting the per capita consumption expenditure,household leverage ratio and per capita disposable income ratio by using the micro data of Gansu Province,this paper analyzes the effect of household wealth on consumption under the background of"leverage",and provides the factual basis for how to promote the consumption of residents in Gansu Province.At the same time,through the study of household wealth,the paper also trys to find some useful reference for the development of Gansu Capital Market and real estate market.The results show that household leverage ratio,disposable income and savings deposit are the main factors that affect the residents'consumption expenditure in Gansu Province;the wealth effect of residents'housing assets is weak,and its impact on Residents'consumption expenditure is small.

关 键 词：财富效应 住户部门杠杆率 VAR模型 储蓄存款 住房资产 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济]